Singapore Market Analysis: Singapore equities remain below averages as USD/SGD holds firm
The Straits Times Index (STI) and DBS Group remain below their 20-day and 50-day moving averages, keeping their short-term bias bearish despite modest daily stabilisation. The STI is close to its 20-day low, while DBS Group remains above its 60-day low. USD/SGD is holding above its moving averages with a moderately positive momentum profile. US inflation, producer-price, retail-sales and labour data at 16:30 UAE time could increase volatility across USD/SGD and Singapore assets.
What to watch today
- STI: 5410.10 support, 5450.88 resistance and the 16:30 UAE US inflation releases.
- USD/SGD: 1.2796 and 1.2784 support; 1.2815 and 1.2822 resistance.
- DBS Group: 73.93 support, 74.48 pivot and 75.02 resistance.
- Thursday at 16:30 UAE: US PPI, retail-sales, manufacturing and claims data.
- ATR-based volatility checks before and after both 16:30 UAE release windows.
Technical analysis
Straits Times Index (STI)
Bearish 5,428.75 -0.03% liveThe Straits Times Index (STI) is below its SMA20 at 5615.53 and SMA50 at 5672.83, with price near the lower end of its 20-day range.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
The Straits Times Index (STI) closed at 5433.30, just above its daily pivot at 5430.49 and below pivot resistance at 5450.88. The latest close is also below the SMA20 and SMA50, which are simple moving averages that help show the prevailing trend. The 20-day range runs from 5369.49 to 5749.66.
Momentum remains weak but is approaching oversold territory: the RSI, a 0-to-100 momentum measure, is 31.78. A move through 5450.88 could bring 5471.27 into focus, while failure to hold 5410.10 would leave 5389.71 and the 20-day low at 5369.49 as levels to monitor.
USD/SGD
Bullish 1.2805 -0.02% liveUSD/SGD is above its SMA20 at 1.2785 and SMA50 at 1.2751, trading in the upper half of its 20-day range.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
USD/SGD closed at 1.2800, below its pivot at 1.2803 but above the SMA20 and SMA50. The pair remains within a 20-day range of 1.2738 to 1.2826, with the latest close near the upper portion of that range.
RSI, the momentum indicator, is 57.19, indicating moderately positive momentum without an overbought reading. The pivot supports are 1.2796 and 1.2784, while 1.2815 and 1.2822 are the nearest resistance levels. The 20-day high at 1.2826 is an additional level to watch if price moves above the pivot resistance area.
DBS Group (D05.SI)
Bearish 74.22 -0.34% liveDBS Group is below its SMA20 at 76.72 and SMA50 at 76.65, with price positioned near the lower end of its 20-day range.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
DBS Group closed at 74.24, below its pivot at 74.48 and below both the SMA20 and SMA50. The stock's 20-day range extends from 72.50 to 78.56, while the 60-day low is 71.37. The last 10 closes show a sharp drop from the upper-70s followed by limited stabilisation.
RSI is 38.04, signalling weak momentum but not an oversold reading. A recovery above 74.48 could bring 75.02 and 75.57 into view, while a move below 73.93 would expose 73.39 and the 20-day low at 72.50.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 14 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Core CPI m/m | High | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Wed 14 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Core CPI y/y | High | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| Wed 14 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | CPI m/m | High | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Wed 14 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | CPI y/y | High | 3.6% | 3.4% |
| Thu 15 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Core PPI m/m | High | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Thu 15 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Core Retail Sales m/m | High | 0.6% | 1.4% |
| Thu 15 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | PPI m/m | High | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Thu 15 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Retail Sales m/m | High | 0.3% | 1.2% |
| Thu 15 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | Medium | 28.2 | 37.8 |
| Thu 15 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Unemployment Claims | Medium | 199K | 197K |
The most important scheduled events are the US Core CPI, CPI and related inflation releases at 16:30 UAE time on Wednesday, 14 October. The forecasts are 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year for Core CPI, alongside 0.6% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year for CPI. Inflation surprises typically affect the US dollar and can transmit volatility to USD/SGD and Singapore equities.
At 16:30 UAE time on Thursday, 15 October, Core PPI, PPI, Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims are scheduled. These releases can produce sharp short-term moves in USD/SGD and risk-sensitive equity markets, particularly when the readings differ materially from the forecasts.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based approach would recognise elevated movement risk in the Straits Times Index (STI) and DBS Group: their ATR14 values are 66.75 points and 1.25 SGD respectively. ATR, or average true range, measures typical recent price movement and can help determine whether a stop distance is too tight for current conditions.
For USD/SGD, the ATR14 is 0.0033. Position sizing can be reduced when volatility expands so that a wider volatility-based stop distance does not create excessive account risk. A rules-based system would also avoid opening or adjusting positions immediately around the 16:30 UAE high-impact releases, then reassess after spreads and price movement become more orderly.
Session timing should be part of the rules, with separate checks for the Singapore trading session and the period around the US data releases. Signals are stronger when price, moving-average direction and pivot levels agree; mixed signals, such as weak equities alongside firmer USD/SGD, favour a more cautious or no-trade condition.
