Singapore Market Analysis: Singapore equities remain under pressure as USD/SGD holds firm
The Straits Times Index and DBS Group remain below their 20-day and 50-day moving averages, keeping their short-term trend weak despite today’s modest rebound. Both have RSI readings below 40, showing subdued momentum, while the index is near the lower end of its recent range. USD/SGD is holding above its moving averages and pivot, with momentum still positive but not overbought. US CPI releases at 16:30 UAE on 14 October are the main scheduled risk for all three instruments.
What to watch today
- Straits Times Index pivot at 5418.75; resistance at 5445.72 and support at 5388.51.
- USD/SGD pivot at 1.2802; watch 1.2818 and the 20-day high at 1.2826.
- DBS Group pivot at 73.45; monitor 75.03 above and 72.41 below.
- US CPI and Core CPI releases at 16:30 UAE on Wednesday 14 October.
- ATR readings: 65.97 for the Straits Times Index, 0.0039 for USD/SGD and 1.28 for DBS Group.
Technical analysis
Straits Times Index (STI)
Bearish 5,442.72 +0.50% liveThe Straits Times Index is below its SMA20 at 5625.66 and SMA50 at 5676.41, with price near the lower portion of its 20-day range between 5369.49 and 5749.66.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
The Straits Times Index closed at 5430.83, up 0.28% on the day but down 4.75% over five days and 3.69% over 20 days. Price is below the SMA20 at 5625.66, the SMA50 at 5676.41 and the EMA20 at 5593.68. The RSI, a momentum measure from 0 to 100, is 31.44, indicating weak momentum without establishing a reversal.
The daily pivot is 5418.75. Holding above this level keeps the first resistance at 5445.72 in focus, followed by 5475.96. A move below the pivot would place 5388.51 under observation, while the 20-day and 60-day low remains 5369.49. The ATR, which measures typical daily movement, is 65.97, so price swings may remain relatively wide.
USD/SGD
Bullish 1.2805 -0.01% liveUSD/SGD is above its SMA20 at 1.2776 and SMA50 at 1.2752, trading in the upper half of its 20-day range between 1.2700 and 1.2826.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
USD/SGD closed at 1.2806, little changed on the day, while remaining up 0.09% over five days and 1.06% over 20 days. Price is above the SMA20 at 1.2776, the SMA50 at 1.2752 and the EMA20 at 1.2775. Its RSI is 59.286, showing positive momentum that is not yet in traditionally overbought territory.
The pivot is 1.2802, with initial resistance at 1.2818 and the 20-day high at 1.2826. Holding above the pivot would keep those levels in view. A break below 1.2802 would bring 1.2790 and then 1.2774 into focus. The ATR is 0.0039, providing a reference for recent daily volatility.
DBS Group (D05.SI)
Bearish 74.77 +1.92% liveDBS Group is below its SMA20 at 77.00 and SMA50 at 76.67, with price in the lower half of its 20-day range between 72.50 and 78.56 despite today’s rebound.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
DBS Group closed at 74.67, gaining 1.79% today but remaining down 4.06% over five days and 3.85% over 20 days. The price is below the SMA20 at 77.00, the SMA50 at 76.67 and the EMA20 at 76.60. RSI, a momentum indicator, is 39.97, which reflects weak momentum but is above the traditionally oversold area.
The pivot stands at 73.45. Price is currently above that level, while the first upside reference is the latest high at 75.03, followed by pivot resistance at 75.45. If the pivot fails, support levels at 72.41 and the 20-day low at 72.50 become important areas to monitor. The ATR is 1.28, indicating that normal daily fluctuations can be material relative to the share price.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 14 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Core CPI m/m | High | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Wed 14 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Core CPI y/y | High | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| Wed 14 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | CPI m/m | High | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Wed 14 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | CPI y/y | High | 3.6% | 3.4% |
The main scheduled risk is the US CPI release on Wednesday 14 October at 16:30 UAE. The release includes Core CPI month-on-month, forecast at 0.2% versus 0.3% previously; Core CPI year-on-year, forecast at 2.5% versus 2.4%; CPI month-on-month, forecast at 0.6% versus 0.4%; and CPI year-on-year, forecast at 3.6% versus 3.4%.
Because the figures are US inflation measures, USD/SGD may react directly to any surprise relative to the forecasts. A stronger inflation outcome can support the US dollar, while a softer outcome can reduce that support. The Straits Times Index and DBS Group may also experience wider volatility as traders reassess the broader market effect of the release.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based approach would classify the Straits Times Index and DBS Group as below-average-trend conditions because both remain under their SMA20 and SMA50. Their ATR readings of 65.97 and 1.28, respectively, can be used to estimate volatility and stop distance; a wider volatility-based stop generally requires smaller position sizing to keep risk controlled.
USD/SGD is above its short- and medium-term averages, but its ATR of 0.0039 still calls for volatility-aware sizing. Algorithms may require price to hold above or below the relevant pivot before acting on a directional condition, rather than reacting to a single intraday move.
The high-impact CPI release at 16:30 UAE is a point where automated systems may avoid opening new exposure, reduce size, or wait for spreads and volatility to stabilise. Session filters can also restrict activity to periods with sufficient liquidity and avoid treating the first move around the release as reliable confirmation.
