Singapore Market Analysis: Singapore stocks remain under pressure as USD/SGD holds above support
The Straits Times Index (STI) and DBS Group (D05.SI) remain below their 20-day and 50-day averages after further daily declines. The STI is near its 20-day and 60-day low at 5362.72, while DBS Group is close to its 20-day and 60-day low at 72.50. USD/SGD is holding above its short-term averages, with upside levels at 1.2847 and 1.2871 in focus. High-impact US data at 16:30 UAE time and a speech by Fed Chairman Warsh at 07:30 UAE time on Friday may increase volatility.
What to watch today
- STI: 5362.72 low, 5385.81 support and 5429.08 pivot
- USD/SGD: 1.2820 pivot, 1.2847 resistance and 1.2770 support
- DBS Group: 72.50 low, 73.37 support and 74.38 pivot
- Thursday, 15 October at 16:30 UAE: US inflation, retail sales, claims and manufacturing releases
- Friday, 16 October at 07:30 UAE: Fed Chairman Warsh speaks
Technical analysis
Straits Times Index (STI)
Bearish 5,384.80 -0.71% liveThe Straits Times Index (STI) is in a declining short-term trend, trading below its SMA20 at 5600.86 and SMA50 at 5668.54 and close to its recent range low.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
The Straits Times Index (STI) closed at 5376.98 after falling 0.85% on the day and 5.01% over 20 days. It remains below the SMA20 at 5600.86, the SMA50 at 5668.54 and the EMA20 at 5558.34, keeping the short-term structure weak. The 20-day and 60-day lows are both at 5362.72.
RSI, a momentum gauge ranging from 0 to 100, is at 28.11, which shows weak momentum and leaves room for a technical rebound if selling pressure eases. However, the level at 5385.81 and the last low at 5362.72 remain important downside reference points. A move back above the pivot at 5429.08 would improve the immediate tone, with 5447.84 as the next supplied resistance.
USD/SGD
Bullish 1.2824 +0.22% liveUSD/SGD retains a constructive short-term trend above its SMA20 at 1.2787 and SMA50 at 1.2751, while trading near the upper part of its recent range.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
USD/SGD closed at 1.2819, up 0.18% on the day and over five days. The pair is above the SMA20 at 1.2787, the SMA50 at 1.2751 and the EMA20 at 1.2784. Its RSI is 61.03, indicating positive momentum without reaching an extreme reading.
The pivot is at 1.2820, almost level with the close. Holding above 1.2820 would keep 1.2847 and the 20-day high at 1.2871 in focus. A move below support at 1.2770 would weaken the near-term structure, with 1.2743 providing the next supplied reference.
DBS Group (D05.SI)
Bearish 73.60 -1.00% liveDBS Group (D05.SI) remains in a declining short-term trend below its SMA20 at 76.55 and SMA50 at 76.65, trading close to its recent low.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
DBS Group (D05.SI) closed at 73.42, down 1.24% on the day and 4.57% over 20 days. The price is below the SMA20 at 76.55, the SMA50 at 76.65 and the EMA20 at 75.89. The 20-day and 60-day lows are both at 72.50, keeping the recent range tilted to the downside.
RSI is 34.64, showing weak momentum but not the same oversold reading as the Straits Times Index (STI). The pivot at 74.38 and resistance at 73.86 are important recovery levels. A sustained move above 74.38 would improve the near-term tone, while 73.37 and 72.50 remain the main lower references.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 15 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Core PPI m/m | High | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Thu 15 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Core Retail Sales m/m | High | 0.6% | 1.4% |
| Thu 15 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | PPI m/m | High | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Thu 15 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Retail Sales m/m | High | 0.3% | 1.2% |
| Thu 15 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | Medium | 28.2 | 37.8 |
| Thu 15 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Unemployment Claims | Medium | 199K | 197K |
| Fri 16 Oct, 07:30 UAE | USD | Fed Chairman Warsh Speaks | High | - | - |
The main scheduled event cluster is at 16:30 UAE time on Thursday, 15 October. US Core PPI, PPI, Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales are high-impact releases, while the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims are medium-impact releases at the same time.
These releases can affect the US dollar and risk sentiment, which may influence USD/SGD, the Straits Times Index (STI) and DBS Group (D05.SI). Larger-than-expected differences from the listed forecasts can increase short-term volatility, so price reactions around the release time may be less orderly.
At 07:30 UAE time on Friday, 16 October, Fed Chairman Warsh is scheduled to speak. With no forecast or previous value listed, the market reaction may depend on the tone of the remarks, particularly for USD/SGD and broader risk-sensitive assets.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based approach would recognise elevated movement in the Straits Times Index (STI), where ATR14, a measure of typical daily range, is 67.46 points. DBS Group has an ATR14 of 1.27, while USD/SGD has an ATR14 of 0.0038. These readings can be used to calibrate risk and stop distance rather than relying only on fixed price gaps.
Because the STI and DBS Group are below their key moving averages, an algorithm may require confirmation around 5429.08 for the STI and 74.38 for DBS Group before treating a recovery as established. For USD/SGD, the pivot at 1.2820 and support at 1.2770 define important conditions.
A disciplined system would reduce position size when volatility expands, avoid opening trades immediately around the high-impact 16:30 UAE releases, and reassess after the initial reaction. Session timing and liquidity conditions should also be included in any rules, with added caution before the Friday speech at 07:30 UAE time.
