Singapore Market Analysis: Singapore stocks soften as the index stays below key averages
The Straits Times Index (STI) closed at 5644.78, below its 20-day and 50-day averages, while its recent decline keeps the short-term tone cautious. USD/SGD remains above both averages and is holding near its 20-day high. DBS Group is close to its 20-day average and above its 50-day average, but recent losses point to consolidation. High-impact US employment data at 16:30 UAE may increase volatility across Singapore markets and the currency pair.
What to watch today
- STI: 5646.80 support, 5625.92 pivot support and 5673.69 pivot resistance.
- USD/SGD: 1.2807 resistance, 1.2820 20-day high and 1.2763 support.
- DBS Group: 77.35 pivot, 77.78 resistance and 76.94 support.
- 16:30 UAE: US Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.
- Monitor ATR-based volatility and avoid treating the initial 16:30 UAE move as confirmation.
Technical analysis
Straits Times Index (STI)
Bearish 5,650.39 -0.30% liveThe Straits Times Index (STI) is below its SMA20 at 5695.97 and SMA50 at 5692.95, with recent closes moving toward the lower end of its 20-day range.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
The Straits Times Index (STI) closed at 5644.78, below the pivot at 5673.69 and just below pivot support at 5646.80. The index is also under its 20-day average at 5695.97 and 50-day average at 5692.95, keeping the near-term structure cautious.
The 14-day RSI, a momentum measure, is 43.66, which indicates weaker momentum without reaching traditionally oversold territory. The 20-day low at 5621.76 and pivot support at 5625.92 are key downside levels, while a move back above 5673.69 would bring the averages and 5694.57 into focus.
USD/SGD
Bullish 1.2793 +0.11% liveUSD/SGD is above its SMA20 at 1.2736 and SMA50 at 1.2761, trading close to its 20-day high at 1.2820 after a modest 20-day advance.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
USD/SGD closed at 1.2796, above the pivot at 1.2792 and both its 20-day average at 1.2736 and 50-day average at 1.2761. The pair is near pivot resistance at 1.2807, with the 20-day high at 1.2820 marking a nearby range boundary.
The 14-day RSI, a momentum measure, is 59.15, showing positive momentum but not an extreme reading. Support at 1.2763 and 1.2748 may help define whether the pair retains its position above the moving averages, while 1.2835 is the next supplied resistance level above the recent high.
DBS Group (D05.SI)
Neutral 77.35 -0.01% liveDBS Group is slightly below its SMA20 at 77.49 but above its SMA50 at 76.47, with recent closes showing consolidation after a pullback from the 20-day high.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
DBS Group closed at 77.26, just below the pivot at 77.35 and its 20-day average at 77.49. It remains above the 50-day average at 76.47, leaving the broader short-term structure mixed rather than decisively bearish.
The 14-day RSI, a momentum measure, is 51.55, consistent with balanced momentum. Pivot support at 76.94 and 76.51 are the nearby downside levels, while a recovery above 77.35 could bring 77.78 and the 20-day high at 78.60 into focus.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 02 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | High | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Fri 02 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | High | 89K | 162K |
| Fri 02 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Unemployment Rate | High | 4.1% | 4.1% |
The main scheduled risk is the US employment release at 16:30 UAE today. Average Hourly Earnings is forecast at 0.3%, compared with 0.3% previously; Non-Farm Employment Change is forecast at 89K, compared with 162K; and the Unemployment Rate is forecast at 4.1%, unchanged from the previous reading.
Because these are high-impact USD events, USD/SGD may see sharper movement around the release. The Straits Times Index (STI) and DBS Group may also experience increased volatility as traders reassess currency and broader market conditions. A result materially different from expectations could produce a rapid move in either direction, so confirmation after the initial reaction is important.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based approach would treat the Straits Times Index (STI) as a weaker trend setup while price remains below its 20-day and 50-day averages. Its ATR14, a measure of typical daily movement, is 51.24; any risk-control distance would need to account for this volatility rather than relying on a tight fixed distance.
For USD/SGD, ATR14 is 0.0040, while DBS Group has an ATR14 of 0.90. An algorithm can use ATR-aware stop distances and reduce position size when the required distance becomes wider. It can also require price to hold or reclaim the relevant pivot before treating a level as confirmed.
Because the US employment figures are scheduled for 16:30 UAE and marked high impact, a rules-based system may avoid opening new exposure immediately before the release, pause during the initial volatility, and reassess after spreads and price movement become more orderly. Session filters can be used to separate normal Singapore-market movement from the event-driven reaction.
