Singapore Market Analysis: STI steadies near 5,690 while USD/SGD tests recent highs
The Straits Times Index (STI) closed slightly higher at 5689.67 but remains below its 20-day and 50-day averages, keeping the near-term picture balanced. USD/SGD is holding above its moving averages and remains close to its 20-day high at 1.2811. DBS Group is near its 20-day average and above its 50-day average, although it remains below its recent high. US manufacturing, labour-market data and Federal Reserve speakers could affect Singapore-linked markets over the next 48 hours.
What to watch today
- STI pivot at 5695.09, support at 5656.67 and resistance at 5714.31
- USD/SGD resistance at 1.2798 and 20-day high at 1.2811
- DBS Group pivot at 77.83 and support at 77.17
- US Unemployment Claims at 16:30 UAE and ISM PMI at 18:00 UAE on Thursday
- US payrolls, earnings and unemployment data at 16:30 UAE on Friday
Technical analysis
Straits Times Index (STI)
Neutral 5,693.22 +0.31% liveThe Straits Times Index (STI) is range-bound below its SMA20 at 5704.93 and SMA50 at 5692.13, with the 20-day range between 5621.76 and 5828.50.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
The Straits Times Index (STI) closed at 5689.67, up 0.24% on the day, but remains below the 20-day average at 5704.93 and just below the 50-day average at 5692.13. The pivot, a reference level calculated from the prior session, is at 5695.09, so the index is positioned close to an important short-term balance area.
The 14-day RSI, a momentum measure where readings near 50 indicate balance, is 49.69. This supports a neutral reading rather than a clearly stretched condition. If selling pressure increases, the pivot support levels at 5656.67 and 5637.45 are areas to monitor. The 14-day ATR, which measures typical daily movement, is 51.04 points, indicating that breaks can cover a meaningful range.
USD/SGD
Bullish 1.2794 +0.13% liveUSD/SGD is above its SMA20 at 1.2730 and SMA50 at 1.2764, with price near the upper end of its 20-day range from 1.2627 to 1.2811.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
USD/SGD closed at 1.2796, above the SMA20 at 1.2730, the SMA50 at 1.2764 and the pivot at 1.2772. The pair has gained 0.68% over 20 days and is trading close to the 20-day high at 1.2811, keeping the short-term structure firmer than the broader index picture.
The 14-day RSI is 58.92, indicating positive momentum without an extreme reading. A move above the pivot resistance at 1.2798 would place the 20-day high at 1.2811 in focus. On the downside, a return below 1.2772 could bring 1.2762 into view. The ATR is 0.0041, so normal daily fluctuations remain relevant around these levels.
DBS Group (D05.SI)
Neutral 77.65 +0.19% liveDBS Group is near its SMA20 at 77.57 and above its SMA50 at 76.40, while remaining within a 20-day range of 76.31 to 79.05.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
DBS Group closed at 77.59, just above its SMA20 at 77.57 and well above its SMA50 at 76.40. The share remains below the pivot at 77.83 and has declined 0.46% over 20 days, suggesting consolidation rather than a clearly established short-term direction.
The 14-day RSI is 54.42, showing mildly positive momentum but no strong extreme. A move above 77.83 would bring 78.16 and the recent 20-day high at 79.05 into focus. If price weakens, the pivot support at 77.17 and the second support at 76.84 are key levels to monitor. The ATR is 0.93, so moves of close to one Singapore dollar can occur within typical daily volatility.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 01 Oct, 02:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks | Medium | - | - |
| Thu 01 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Unemployment Claims | Medium | 201K | 197K |
| Thu 01 Oct, 18:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | Medium | - | - |
| Thu 01 Oct, 18:00 UAE | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Medium | 54.8 | 54.6 |
| Fri 02 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | High | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Fri 02 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | High | 90K | 162K |
| Fri 02 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Unemployment Rate | High | 4.1% | 4.1% |
The most relevant scheduled events are US releases because they can influence the US dollar, regional risk sentiment and USD/SGD. At 16:30 UAE on Thursday, Unemployment Claims are forecast at 201K versus 197K previously. At 18:00 UAE, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecast at 54.8 versus 54.6 previously, alongside a speech from FOMC Member Waller.
The main high-impact window is 16:30 UAE on Friday, when Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate are scheduled. The payrolls forecast is 90K versus 162K previously, while the unemployment-rate forecast is 4.1%, unchanged from the previous reading, and earnings growth is forecast at 0.3%, also unchanged. Stronger or weaker results can typically shift expectations for interest rates and the US dollar, which may affect USD/SGD and broader equity sentiment. FOMC Member Kashkari's scheduled speech was at 02:00 UAE on Thursday.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based approach can treat the STI as range-bound while it remains between the 5656.67 support and 5714.31 resistance, with the moving averages close to the current price. USD/SGD has the firmer structure because it is above both moving averages, while DBS Group is near its SMA20 and below its pivot. Signals should be evaluated against these conditions rather than in isolation.
ATR measures typical movement and can help determine whether risk distances are proportionate to current volatility: 51.04 points for the STI, 0.0041 for USD/SGD and 0.93 for DBS Group. A rules-based model may reduce position size when ATR is high, avoid placing risk distances too close to normal market noise, and reassess exposure around the 16:30 and 18:00 UAE US releases. The Friday 16:30 UAE high-impact releases warrant particular caution, while session timing and liquidity filters can help avoid unreliable signals around the announcement window.
