Forex Market Analysis: Dollar pairs diverge as EUR/USD tests fresh range support
EUR/USD remains under pressure after falling 2.24% over 20 days and trading well below its 20-day and 50-day averages. GBP/USD is also below both moving averages, although its latest session and five-day changes are slightly positive. USD/JPY is above its 20-day average but just below its 50-day average, while USD/INR holds above both averages. US manufacturing data, central-bank speakers, euro-area inflation and Friday’s US employment figures are the main scheduled risk points.
What to watch today
- EUR/USD: 1.1325 and 1.1321 support; 1.1349 and 1.1369 resistance.
- GBP/USD: 1.3203 and 1.3202 support; BOE Governor Bailey at 12:00 UAE.
- USD/JPY: 158.22 and 159 resistance; Tokyo Core CPI at 03:30 UAE Friday.
- USD/INR: 95.85 support and 96.16 resistance; price is near the 95.95 pivot.
- US data: Claims at 16:30 UAE, ISM PMI at 18:00 UAE, and payrolls at 16:30 UAE Friday.
Technical analysis
EUR/USD
Bearish 1.1328 -0.11% liveEUR/USD is in a pronounced downtrend below its 1.1497 20-day SMA and 1.1533 50-day SMA, with the latest close at the bottom of its 20-day range.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
EUR/USD closed at 1.1326, down 0.13% on the day and 0.49% over five days. The pair is 2.24% lower over 20 days and sits below the 1.1497 20-day SMA, the 1.1461 20-day EMA and the 1.1533 50-day SMA. The latest low and 20-day low are both 1.1325.
The RSI, a momentum measure, is 21.34, which shows deeply weak momentum but does not by itself confirm a reversal. The 14-day ATR, a measure of typical daily movement, is 0.0053. The 1.1349 pivot is the first level to monitor above price, followed by resistance at 1.1369.
If 1.1325 and the 1.1321 pivot support fail to hold, attention may shift toward the 1.1301 pivot S2. A recovery above 1.1349 would reduce immediate downside pressure, while a move through 1.1369 would provide stronger evidence of short-term stabilisation.
GBP/USD
Bearish 1.3255 +0.17% liveGBP/USD remains below its 1.3398 20-day SMA and 1.3459 50-day SMA, despite a small daily gain and a close above the recent 1.3203 low.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
GBP/USD closed at 1.3251, rising 0.14% on the day and 0.07% over five days, but it remains 1.72% lower over 20 days. Price is below the 1.3398 20-day SMA, the 1.3362 20-day EMA and the 1.3459 50-day SMA. The 20-day and 60-day lows stand at 1.3203.
The RSI is 33.02, indicating weak momentum without being as stretched as EUR/USD. ATR14 is 0.0072, so daily swings remain material relative to the pair’s current position. The 1.3254 pivot is immediately above the close, followed by 1.3285 resistance.
A sustained hold above 1.3254 could signal that the recent low is attracting support, but the broader structure would remain cautious below the moving averages. A break beneath 1.3203 and the 1.3202 pivot S1 would expose 1.3172, the pivot S2.
USD/JPY
Neutral 158.32 +0.58% liveUSD/JPY is above its 156.09 20-day SMA and 157.20 20-day EMA but remains slightly below its 158.29 50-day SMA within a broad 20-day range.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
USD/JPY closed at 158.14, up 0.47% on the day, while the five-day change is -0.08% and the 20-day change is -0.49%. Price is above the 156.09 20-day SMA and 157.20 20-day EMA, but just below the 158.29 50-day SMA. The latest high is 158.22, and the 20-day high is 159.
The RSI is 54.83, close to neutral territory, so momentum does not currently show a strong directional extreme. ATR14 is 1.37, pointing to relatively wide daily movement. The 158.09 pivot R2 and 157.75 pivot R1 are important nearby levels, although price is currently above both.
A sustained move above 158.22 could bring the 159 20-day high into focus. Conversely, a return below 158.09 would weaken the immediate upside structure and put 157.75 on watch, while the wider trend remains mixed between the 20-day and 50-day averages.
USD/INR
Bullish 95.97 -0.08% liveUSD/INR is holding above its 95.55 20-day SMA, 95.69 20-day EMA and 95.48 50-day SMA after a 1.54% 20-day rise, though it remains below its 20-day high.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
USD/INR closed at 95.94, down 0.12% on the day but up 0.21% over five days and 1.54% over 20 days. Price is above the 95.55 20-day SMA, the 95.69 20-day EMA and the 95.48 50-day SMA. The 20-day high is 96.17, while the 60-day high is 96.90.
The RSI is 54.42, indicating balanced-to-firm momentum rather than an extreme. ATR14 is 0.56, providing a guide to recent daily volatility. The 95.95 pivot is close to the current price, with 96.16 and 96.26 marking the next supplied resistance levels.
A hold above 95.85 would keep the recent upward structure intact, while a move below that level could bring 95.65 into focus. The 96.17 20-day high is also important because it sits just above the 96.16 pivot R1.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 01 Oct, 01:10 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 01 Oct, 02:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks | Medium | - | - |
| Thu 01 Oct, 12:00 UAE | GBP | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | Medium | - | - |
| Thu 01 Oct, 13:30 UAE | USD | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | Low | - | -38.5% |
| Thu 01 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Unemployment Claims | Medium | 201K | 197K |
| Thu 01 Oct, 17:05 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Barkin Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 01 Oct, 17:05 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Collins Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 01 Oct, 17:05 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Schmid Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 01 Oct, 17:30 UAE | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | Medium | - | - |
| Thu 01 Oct, 17:45 UAE | USD | Final Manufacturing PMI | Low | 56.9 | 57.0 |
| Thu 01 Oct, 18:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | Medium | - | - |
| Thu 01 Oct, 18:00 UAE | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Medium | 54.8 | 54.6 |
| Thu 01 Oct, 18:00 UAE | USD | Construction Spending m/m | Low | 0.0% | -0.5% |
| Thu 01 Oct, 18:00 UAE | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices | Low | 72.9 | 71.1 |
| Thu 01 Oct, 18:15 UAE | USD | Omdia Total Vehicle Sales | Low | 16.3M | 16.8M |
| Thu 01 Oct, 18:30 UAE | USD | Natural Gas Storage | Low | 63B | 53B |
| Thu 01 Oct, 21:30 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 01 Oct, 23:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 01 Oct, 23:30 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Cook Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Fri 02 Oct, 02:45 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Logan Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Fri 02 Oct, 03:30 UAE | JPY | Tokyo Core CPI y/y | Medium | 2.4% | 1.8% |
| Fri 02 Oct, 13:00 UAE | EUR | Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y | Medium | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| Fri 02 Oct, 13:00 UAE | EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | Medium | 3.7% | 3.3% |
| Fri 02 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | High | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Fri 02 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Non-Farm Employment Change | High | 90K | 162K |
The most important event cluster for dollar pairs is on Thursday at 18:00 UAE, when ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled with a 54.8 forecast versus 54.6 previously. FOMC Member Waller also speaks at that time, while several other Federal Reserve speakers appear later in the day. Such releases and remarks can increase short-term volatility in USD pairs as traders reassess the dollar outlook.
US Unemployment Claims are scheduled for 16:30 UAE, with a 201K forecast versus 197K previously. The euro also has a key event at 17:30 UAE when ECB President Lagarde speaks. For GBP/USD, BOE Governor Bailey speaks at 12:00 UAE.
During the next session, Tokyo Core CPI is due at 03:30 UAE on Friday, which may affect USD/JPY. Euro-area CPI flash estimates are scheduled for 13:00 UAE, with headline CPI forecast at 3.7% and core CPI at 2.5%. The highest-impact releases are US Average Hourly Earnings and Non-Farm Employment Change at 16:30 UAE on Friday; forecasts are 0.3% and 90K respectively. These events can produce sharp moves and wider spreads, especially in USD pairs.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based approach would treat the four pairs differently rather than applying one directional rule across the market. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are below their key moving averages, while USD/JPY is mixed around its 50-day average and USD/INR is above its moving-average group.
ATR14 should guide volatility-aware stop distance and position sizing: approximately 0.0053 for EUR/USD, 0.0072 for GBP/USD, 1.37 for USD/JPY and 0.56 for USD/INR. Larger ATR readings generally require smaller position sizes if the risk budget is kept constant. Stops should not be placed mechanically at arbitrary distances, and no setup is confirmed solely by RSI or a pivot.
A systematic process would normally reduce exposure or avoid opening new positions close to the 16:30 and 18:00 UAE US releases, as well as Friday’s 16:30 UAE payrolls and earnings data. It could instead wait for the initial volatility to settle, then evaluate whether price holds or rejects the relevant pivot and range levels during the London and New York sessions.
