Forex Market Analysis: Dollar strength pressures euro and pound as yen momentum improves
EUR/USD and GBP/USD are in clear short-term downtrends, trading below their 20-day and 50-day averages after further daily declines. Both pairs have RSI readings near oversold territory, so reaction around nearby support levels is important. USD/JPY is holding above its 20-day average and pivot, while USD/INR remains close to its recent range midpoint with a neutral momentum profile. US employment data and central-bank speakers may affect dollar volatility, while the Bank of England Governor’s speech is the main sterling event on Friday.
What to watch today
- EUR/USD: 1.1373 support, 1.1405 pivot S1 and 1.1428 pivot.
- GBP/USD: 1.3224 low, 1.3216 pivot S2 and BOE Governor Bailey at 13:15 UAE on Friday.
- USD/JPY: 157.77 pivot, 158.09 pivot R1 and 158.72 pivot R2.
- USD/INR: 95.58 pivot, 95.95 pivot R1 and 96.13 20-day high.
- US events: Unemployment Claims at 16:30 UAE today and UoM releases at 18:00 UAE on Friday.
Technical analysis
EUR/USD
Bearish 1.1391 -0.50% liveEUR/USD is below its SMA20 at 1.1559 and SMA50 at 1.1539, with ten-session closes declining toward the 20-day low at 1.1373.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
EUR/USD remains under pressure. The pair closed at 1.1383 after falling 0.57% on the day, 0.76% over five days and 2.33% over 20 days. Price is below the SMA20, SMA50 and EMA20 at 1.1529, keeping the broader technical structure bearish.
The 14-day RSI, a momentum measure, is 25.44, which indicates an oversold condition but does not by itself confirm a reversal. Initial support is at the 20-day low of 1.1373, followed by pivot S2 at 1.1362. A move back above pivot S1 at 1.1405 would reduce immediate downside pressure, while 1.1428 is the next pivot reference.
GBP/USD
Bearish 1.3249 -0.71% liveGBP/USD is below its SMA20 at 1.3474 and SMA50 at 1.3477, while consecutive lower closes place it at the 20-day and 60-day low of 1.3224.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
GBP/USD has the weakest trend profile among the major pairs covered. It closed at 1.3239, down 0.78% for the day, 1.08% over five days and 2.64% over 20 days. The price is well below the SMA20, SMA50 and EMA20 at 1.3442, confirming persistent downside momentum.
RSI14, which measures recent momentum, is 26.16 and near oversold territory. The 20-day and 60-day lows are both 1.3224, making that level the immediate support reference; pivot S2 is 1.3216. A recovery above pivot S1 at 1.3280 would be an early sign of stabilisation, followed by the pivot at 1.3312.
USD/JPY
Bullish 158.35 +0.56% liveUSD/JPY is above its SMA20 at 156.53 and EMA20 at 156.78 but remains below the SMA50 at 158.77, with recent closes rising toward the 20-day high at 160.38.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
USD/JPY is showing improving short-term momentum. The pair closed at 158.03, up 0.36% on the day and 1.29% over five days, while the last ten closes moved from 154.48 to 158.03. Price is above the daily pivot at 157.77 and above the SMA20, although it remains below the SMA50 at 158.77.
RSI14 is 55.31, a neutral-to-firm momentum reading rather than an overextended condition. Pivot R1 at 158.09 is the nearest resistance, followed by R2 at 158.72. A loss of the 157.77 pivot would weaken the immediate structure and bring S1 at 157.14 into focus.
USD/INR
Neutral 95.90 +0.22% liveUSD/INR is slightly above its SMA20 at 95.32, SMA50 at 95.53 and EMA20 at 95.51, but remains within a broad recent range between 94.23 and 96.13.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
USD/INR is consolidating with limited daily movement. It closed at 95.74, up 0.05% on the day and down 0.41% over five days. The price is above the three tracked moving averages, but the 20-day change is only 0.32% and the last ten closes remain broadly range-bound.
RSI14 is 53.54, indicating balanced momentum. The daily pivot at 95.58 is the first support reference, followed by pivot S1 at 95.31. On the upside, pivot R1 at 95.95 and the 20-day high at 96.13 define nearby resistance. A sustained move beyond either side would provide clearer directional information.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 24 Sep, 12:10 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Unemployment Claims | Medium | 201K | 196K |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Current Account | Low | -258B | -227B |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Barkin Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:50 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 18:00 UAE | USD | New Home Sales | Low | 615K | 607K |
| Thu 24 Sep, 18:10 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Paulson Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 18:30 UAE | USD | Natural Gas Storage | Low | 50B | 44B |
| Fri 25 Sep, 13:15 UAE | GBP | BOE Gov Bailey Speaks | High | - | - |
| Fri 25 Sep, 13:15 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Fri 25 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | Low | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Fri 25 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Durable Goods Orders m/m | Low | -0.3% | 1.1% |
| Fri 25 Sep, 17:20 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Schmid Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Fri 25 Sep, 18:00 UAE | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | Medium | 47.4 | 47.8 |
| Fri 25 Sep, 18:00 UAE | USD | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | Medium | - | 4.6% |
| Fri 25 Sep, 22:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | Low | - | - |
US dollar events: Unemployment Claims is scheduled for Thu 24 Sep at 16:30 UAE, with a forecast of 201K versus 196K previously. The Current Account and remarks from FOMC members Barkin and Hammack are also scheduled at 16:30 and 16:50 UAE. These events can affect short-term dollar volatility, particularly for EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY.
Additional US releases include New Home Sales at 18:00 UAE, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and Revised UoM Inflation Expectations at 18:00 UAE on Friday, and Durable Goods Orders at 16:30 UAE. FOMC member remarks are scheduled at 12:10, 18:10 and 22:00 UAE on Thursday and Friday at 13:15, 17:20 and 22:00 UAE. Markets typically react through changes in volatility and price direction when economic readings or policy commentary differ from expectations.
Sterling event: BOE Governor Bailey speaks on Fri 25 Sep at 13:15 UAE. Because the event is marked high impact, GBP/USD may experience sharper movement around the release. No scheduled JPY- or INR-specific event is included in the next 48 hours.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based approach would treat EUR/USD and GBP/USD as bearish trend conditions because prices are below their SMA20 and SMA50. Their RSI readings near 25 and 26 may support a volatility-aware approach rather than assuming that oversold momentum must immediately reverse.
ATR, or Average True Range, measures typical daily movement. Current ATR14 is 0.0052 for EUR/USD, 0.0069 for GBP/USD, 1.48 for USD/JPY and 0.57 for USD/INR. An algorithm can use these readings to set wider protective distances in more volatile pairs and reduce position size so that the predefined account risk remains consistent.
Rules may also avoid opening or adjusting positions immediately around the 16:30 UAE US releases, the 13:15 UAE BOE Governor speech and the 18:00 UAE US sentiment releases. Session filters, confirmation above or below the stated pivots, and waiting for volatility to settle can help reduce exposure to event-driven price spikes.
