Forex Market Analysis: Euro and sterling remain under pressure as yen strength builds
EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain below their 20-day and 50-day averages, with both pairs close to recent 20-day lows. USD/JPY is above its 20-day average and pivot, although it remains below the 50-day average. USD/INR is above both moving averages but has eased below its daily pivot. European and UK PMI releases, followed by US data and Federal Reserve speakers, are the main scheduled volatility points.
What to watch today
- EUR/USD: 1.1437 support, 1.1431 20-day low and 1.1459 pivot.
- GBP/USD: 1.3318 20-day low and 1.3334 resistance.
- USD/JPY: 157.32 pivot, 157.82 resistance and 156.87 support.
- USD/INR: 95.51 support and 95.67 pivot.
- European and UK PMIs at 11:15, 11:30 and 12:30 UAE; US PMIs at 17:45 UAE.
Technical analysis
EUR/USD
Bearish 1.1432 -0.28% liveEUR/USD is in a declining short-term trend below its 1.1572 SMA20 and 1.1541 SMA50, trading near its 20-day low at 1.1431.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
EUR/USD closed at 1.1436 after falling 0.25% on the day, 0.88% over five days and 2.04% over 20 days. The close is below the 1.1459 pivot, while the 20-day and 50-day averages at 1.1572 and 1.1541 respectively show that the broader recent range remains under pressure.
RSI, a momentum gauge ranging from 0 to 100, is 30.25, indicating weak momentum and a market close to the commonly watched oversold area. ATR, a measure of typical daily movement, is 0.0046, so moves around the 1.1437 pivot support and the 1.1431 20-day low may be relatively important. A recovery above 1.1459 would bring 1.1487 into focus, while failure to hold 1.1437 would leave the 1.1431 low exposed.
GBP/USD
Bearish 1.3318 -0.40% liveGBP/USD is trending lower below its 1.3490 SMA20 and 1.3483 SMA50, with price sitting at its 20-day low of 1.3318.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
GBP/USD closed at 1.3322, down 0.36% today, 1.12% over five days and 2.38% over 20 days. Price is below the 1.3361 pivot and remains well under both the 20-day average at 1.3490 and the 50-day average at 1.3483, keeping the recent range tilted lower.
RSI is 31.63, showing weak momentum near the lower end of its recent range. ATR is 0.0060, which signals that daily fluctuations can be meaningful relative to the current price. Holding 1.3318 could support a move back toward 1.3334 and 1.3361, while a sustained move below 1.3318 would place 1.3297 on watch.
USD/JPY
Neutral 157.58 +0.13% liveUSD/JPY has recovered above its 1.5660 SMA20 and 1.5732 pivot area but remains below its 1.5885 SMA50, with recent closes rising from the 1.5290 low.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
USD/JPY closed at 157.61, gaining 0.15% today and 1.51% over five days, although it remains down 1.01% over 20 days. The pair is above the 156.60 SMA20 and 157.32 pivot, but below the 158.85 SMA50, leaving the short-term recovery in a mixed broader trend.
RSI is 53.12, close to the midpoint and consistent with balanced momentum rather than an extreme. ATR is 1.62 yen, so the 157.82 pivot resistance and 158.27 second resistance are key nearby reference points. A pullback that holds 157.32 would keep the recent recovery structure intact, while a break below 156.87 would weaken it.
USD/INR
Neutral 95.67 -0.04% liveUSD/INR trades above its 95.30 SMA20 and 95.54 SMA50 after a 2.18% 20-day rise, but it is currently just below the 95.67 pivot within its recent range.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
USD/INR closed at 95.59, down 0.13% on the day and 0.42% over five days, while remaining 2.18% higher over 20 days. Price is above the 95.30 SMA20 and 95.54 SMA50, but below the 95.67 pivot, producing a mixed short-term picture.
RSI is 51.78, close to neutral momentum. ATR is 0.55 rupee, giving a useful measure of the pair's typical daily movement. Holding the 95.51 support could keep the pair near the pivot, while a recovery above 95.67 would bring 95.88 into view. A move below 95.51 would shift attention toward 95.30.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 23 Sep, 00:30 UAE | USD | API Weekly Statistical Bulletin | Low | - | - |
| Wed 23 Sep, 11:15 UAE | EUR | French Flash Manufacturing PMI | Medium | 50.9 | 51.5 |
| Wed 23 Sep, 11:15 UAE | EUR | French Flash Services PMI | Medium | 48.3 | 48.4 |
| Wed 23 Sep, 11:30 UAE | EUR | German Flash Manufacturing PMI | Medium | 54.1 | 54.1 |
| Wed 23 Sep, 11:30 UAE | EUR | German Flash Services PMI | Medium | 49.9 | 48.5 |
| Wed 23 Sep, 12:30 UAE | GBP | Flash Manufacturing PMI | Medium | 51.5 | 51.5 |
| Wed 23 Sep, 12:30 UAE | GBP | Flash Services PMI | Medium | 52.0 | 52.8 |
| Wed 23 Sep, 17:45 UAE | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | Low | 53.6 | 53.2 |
| Wed 23 Sep, 17:45 UAE | USD | Flash Services PMI | Low | 55.8 | 56.8 |
| Wed 23 Sep, 18:05 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Barr Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Wed 23 Sep, 18:30 UAE | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | Low | -0.7M | -0.6M |
| Wed 23 Sep, 20:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 12:10 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Unemployment Claims | Medium | 201K | 196K |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Current Account | Low | -258B | -227B |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Barkin Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:50 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 18:00 UAE | USD | New Home Sales | Low | 615K | 607K |
| Thu 24 Sep, 18:10 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Paulson Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 18:30 UAE | USD | Natural Gas Storage | Low | 50B | 44B |
The main European releases are the French flash manufacturing and services PMIs at 11:15 UAE, followed by the German flash manufacturing and services PMIs at 11:30 UAE. PMI readings can quickly affect EUR/USD by changing expectations about regional business activity, with larger-than-expected deviations from forecasts typically increasing short-term volatility.
UK flash manufacturing and services PMIs arrive at 12:30 UAE. These releases can produce sharp intraday moves in GBP/USD, particularly when the results differ from the 51.5 manufacturing and 52.0 services forecasts.
US flash manufacturing and services PMIs are scheduled for 17:45 UAE. FOMC Member Barr speaks at 18:05 UAE, FOMC Member Goolsbee at 20:00 UAE, and FOMC Member Williams at 12:10 UAE on Thursday. US unemployment claims are due at 16:30 UAE on Thursday, when USD/JPY and USD/INR may see higher volatility; further Federal Reserve remarks and US releases follow through Thursday evening.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based algorithm would classify EUR/USD and GBP/USD as weak-trend conditions because price is below both the SMA20 and SMA50, while USD/JPY and USD/INR require more cautious treatment because their moving-average signals are mixed or only moderately supportive. RSI near 30 for EUR/USD and GBP/USD may indicate stretched downside momentum, but it does not by itself confirm a reversal.
ATR measures typical daily movement and can help set volatility-aware stop distances and position sizes. The current ATR values are 0.0046 for EUR/USD, 0.0060 for GBP/USD, 1.62 for USD/JPY and 0.55 for USD/INR; a rules-based model could reduce position size when wider protection is required. It would also avoid opening or adjusting positions close to the European, UK and US PMI releases, US unemployment claims and scheduled Federal Reserve speeches, then wait for volatility and spreads to stabilise.
Session timing matters: European hours are most relevant for EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while the later US session can affect all four pairs through USD-related moves. Any model should test conditions across sessions rather than treating a single daily close as confirmation.