Wednesday, 23 September 2026   Neutral bias

Forex Market Analysis: Euro and sterling remain under pressure as yen strength builds

By Finoways Research TeamPublished 23 Sep 2026, 07:30 UAEInstruments: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/INR

EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain below their 20-day and 50-day averages, with both pairs close to recent 20-day lows. USD/JPY is above its 20-day average and pivot, although it remains below the 50-day average. USD/INR is above both moving averages but has eased below its daily pivot. European and UK PMI releases, followed by US data and Federal Reserve speakers, are the main scheduled volatility points.

What to watch today

  • EUR/USD: 1.1437 support, 1.1431 20-day low and 1.1459 pivot.
  • GBP/USD: 1.3318 20-day low and 1.3334 resistance.
  • USD/JPY: 157.32 pivot, 157.82 resistance and 156.87 support.
  • USD/INR: 95.51 support and 95.67 pivot.
  • European and UK PMIs at 11:15, 11:30 and 12:30 UAE; US PMIs at 17:45 UAE.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD

Bearish 1.1432 -0.28% live

EUR/USD is in a declining short-term trend below its 1.1572 SMA20 and 1.1541 SMA50, trading near its 20-day low at 1.1431.

Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.

Last close
1.1436
1 day
-0.25%
5 days
-0.88%
20 days
-2.04%
SMA 20
1.1572
SMA 50
1.1541
RSI 14
30.2
ATR 14
0.0046
20-day range
1.1431 - 1.1662
Daily pivot
1.1459
Support1.1437  |  1.1431
Resistance1.1459  |  1.1487

EUR/USD closed at 1.1436 after falling 0.25% on the day, 0.88% over five days and 2.04% over 20 days. The close is below the 1.1459 pivot, while the 20-day and 50-day averages at 1.1572 and 1.1541 respectively show that the broader recent range remains under pressure.

RSI, a momentum gauge ranging from 0 to 100, is 30.25, indicating weak momentum and a market close to the commonly watched oversold area. ATR, a measure of typical daily movement, is 0.0046, so moves around the 1.1437 pivot support and the 1.1431 20-day low may be relatively important. A recovery above 1.1459 would bring 1.1487 into focus, while failure to hold 1.1437 would leave the 1.1431 low exposed.

Bullish scenarioIf EUR/USD holds above 1.1437 and reclaims 1.1459, attention could turn to resistance near 1.1487.
Bearish scenarioIf EUR/USD breaks and sustains below 1.1431, the recent downside structure would remain active, with 1.1409 as the next supplied support.

GBP/USD

Bearish 1.3318 -0.40% live

GBP/USD is trending lower below its 1.3490 SMA20 and 1.3483 SMA50, with price sitting at its 20-day low of 1.3318.

Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.

Last close
1.3322
1 day
-0.36%
5 days
-1.12%
20 days
-2.38%
SMA 20
1.3490
SMA 50
1.3483
RSI 14
31.6
ATR 14
0.0060
20-day range
1.3318 - 1.3604
Daily pivot
1.3361
Support1.3318  |  1.3297
Resistance1.3334  |  1.3361

GBP/USD closed at 1.3322, down 0.36% today, 1.12% over five days and 2.38% over 20 days. Price is below the 1.3361 pivot and remains well under both the 20-day average at 1.3490 and the 50-day average at 1.3483, keeping the recent range tilted lower.

RSI is 31.63, showing weak momentum near the lower end of its recent range. ATR is 0.0060, which signals that daily fluctuations can be meaningful relative to the current price. Holding 1.3318 could support a move back toward 1.3334 and 1.3361, while a sustained move below 1.3318 would place 1.3297 on watch.

Bullish scenarioIf GBP/USD holds above 1.3318 and recovers through 1.3334, the pair could test the 1.3361 pivot.
Bearish scenarioIf GBP/USD remains below 1.3318, downside momentum could extend toward the 1.3297 support level.

USD/JPY

Neutral 157.58 +0.13% live

USD/JPY has recovered above its 1.5660 SMA20 and 1.5732 pivot area but remains below its 1.5885 SMA50, with recent closes rising from the 1.5290 low.

Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.

Last close
157.61
1 day
+0.15%
5 days
+1.51%
20 days
-1.01%
SMA 20
156.60
SMA 50
158.85
RSI 14
53.1
ATR 14
1.62
20-day range
152.90 - 160.38
Daily pivot
157.32
Support157.32  |  156.87
Resistance157.82  |  158.27

USD/JPY closed at 157.61, gaining 0.15% today and 1.51% over five days, although it remains down 1.01% over 20 days. The pair is above the 156.60 SMA20 and 157.32 pivot, but below the 158.85 SMA50, leaving the short-term recovery in a mixed broader trend.

RSI is 53.12, close to the midpoint and consistent with balanced momentum rather than an extreme. ATR is 1.62 yen, so the 157.82 pivot resistance and 158.27 second resistance are key nearby reference points. A pullback that holds 157.32 would keep the recent recovery structure intact, while a break below 156.87 would weaken it.

Bullish scenarioIf USD/JPY holds above 157.32 and clears 157.82, the next resistance area to monitor is 158.27.
Bearish scenarioIf USD/JPY falls below 157.32 and then 156.87, the recovery from the 152.90 low would face a deeper test.

USD/INR

Neutral 95.67 -0.04% live

USD/INR trades above its 95.30 SMA20 and 95.54 SMA50 after a 2.18% 20-day rise, but it is currently just below the 95.67 pivot within its recent range.

Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.

Last close
95.59
1 day
-0.13%
5 days
-0.42%
20 days
+2.18%
SMA 20
95.30
SMA 50
95.54
RSI 14
51.8
ATR 14
0.55
20-day range
94.23 - 96.13
Daily pivot
95.67
Support95.51  |  95.30
Resistance95.67  |  95.88

USD/INR closed at 95.59, down 0.13% on the day and 0.42% over five days, while remaining 2.18% higher over 20 days. Price is above the 95.30 SMA20 and 95.54 SMA50, but below the 95.67 pivot, producing a mixed short-term picture.

RSI is 51.78, close to neutral momentum. ATR is 0.55 rupee, giving a useful measure of the pair's typical daily movement. Holding the 95.51 support could keep the pair near the pivot, while a recovery above 95.67 would bring 95.88 into view. A move below 95.51 would shift attention toward 95.30.

Bullish scenarioIf USD/INR reclaims 95.67 and holds above it, the next resistance level to watch is 95.88.
Bearish scenarioIf USD/INR breaks below 95.51, the pair could test the 95.30 SMA20 and pivot support area.

Market events (next 48 hours)

Time (UAE)CurrencyEventImpactForecastPrevious
Wed 23 Sep, 00:30 UAE USD API Weekly Statistical Bulletin Low - -
Wed 23 Sep, 11:15 UAE EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI Medium 50.9 51.5
Wed 23 Sep, 11:15 UAE EUR French Flash Services PMI Medium 48.3 48.4
Wed 23 Sep, 11:30 UAE EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI Medium 54.1 54.1
Wed 23 Sep, 11:30 UAE EUR German Flash Services PMI Medium 49.9 48.5
Wed 23 Sep, 12:30 UAE GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI Medium 51.5 51.5
Wed 23 Sep, 12:30 UAE GBP Flash Services PMI Medium 52.0 52.8
Wed 23 Sep, 17:45 UAE USD Flash Manufacturing PMI Low 53.6 53.2
Wed 23 Sep, 17:45 UAE USD Flash Services PMI Low 55.8 56.8
Wed 23 Sep, 18:05 UAE USD FOMC Member Barr Speaks Low - -
Wed 23 Sep, 18:30 UAE USD Crude Oil Inventories Low -0.7M -0.6M
Wed 23 Sep, 20:00 UAE USD FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks Low - -
Thu 24 Sep, 12:10 UAE USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks Low - -
Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE USD Unemployment Claims Medium 201K 196K
Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE USD Current Account Low -258B -227B
Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks Low - -
Thu 24 Sep, 16:50 UAE USD FOMC Member Hammack Speaks Low - -
Thu 24 Sep, 18:00 UAE USD New Home Sales Low 615K 607K
Thu 24 Sep, 18:10 UAE USD FOMC Member Paulson Speaks Low - -
Thu 24 Sep, 18:30 UAE USD Natural Gas Storage Low 50B 44B

The main European releases are the French flash manufacturing and services PMIs at 11:15 UAE, followed by the German flash manufacturing and services PMIs at 11:30 UAE. PMI readings can quickly affect EUR/USD by changing expectations about regional business activity, with larger-than-expected deviations from forecasts typically increasing short-term volatility.

UK flash manufacturing and services PMIs arrive at 12:30 UAE. These releases can produce sharp intraday moves in GBP/USD, particularly when the results differ from the 51.5 manufacturing and 52.0 services forecasts.

US flash manufacturing and services PMIs are scheduled for 17:45 UAE. FOMC Member Barr speaks at 18:05 UAE, FOMC Member Goolsbee at 20:00 UAE, and FOMC Member Williams at 12:10 UAE on Thursday. US unemployment claims are due at 16:30 UAE on Thursday, when USD/JPY and USD/INR may see higher volatility; further Federal Reserve remarks and US releases follow through Thursday evening.

Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today

A rules-based algorithm would classify EUR/USD and GBP/USD as weak-trend conditions because price is below both the SMA20 and SMA50, while USD/JPY and USD/INR require more cautious treatment because their moving-average signals are mixed or only moderately supportive. RSI near 30 for EUR/USD and GBP/USD may indicate stretched downside momentum, but it does not by itself confirm a reversal.

ATR measures typical daily movement and can help set volatility-aware stop distances and position sizes. The current ATR values are 0.0046 for EUR/USD, 0.0060 for GBP/USD, 1.62 for USD/JPY and 0.55 for USD/INR; a rules-based model could reduce position size when wider protection is required. It would also avoid opening or adjusting positions close to the European, UK and US PMI releases, US unemployment claims and scheduled Federal Reserve speeches, then wait for volatility and spreads to stabilise.

Session timing matters: European hours are most relevant for EUR/USD and GBP/USD, while the later US session can affect all four pairs through USD-related moves. Any model should test conditions across sessions rather than treating a single daily close as confirmation.

Important: This analysis is general market commentary produced for educational purposes and is not investment advice, a recommendation or a solicitation to trade. Price data comes from public sources and may be delayed or contain errors. Trading foreign exchange, commodities, crypto-assets and equities carries a substantial risk of loss. Finoways LLC does not manage client funds and does not guarantee any outcome. Read the full Risk Disclosure and Disclaimer.
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