COMEX Metals Analysis: Gold and silver remain under pressure as copper extends its advance
Gold and silver remain below their 20-day and 50-day averages, keeping their short-term structure under pressure despite modest daily rebounds. Gold is holding just above its pivot, while silver is above its pivot and 50-day average but still below its 20-day average. Copper retains the strongest profile, trading above both moving averages with positive five-day and 20-day changes. US speeches and economic releases may increase volatility in metals during the UAE afternoon and evening.
What to watch today
- Gold pivot at 4304.8, with 4331.2 resistance and 4271.5 support to monitor.
- Silver 63.36 pivot, 64.53 daily high and 65.28 20-day average.
- Copper 6.712 pivot, 6.780 recent high and 6.830 20-day high.
- US Durable Goods releases at 16:30 UAE and FOMC speakers at 17:20 and 22:00 UAE.
- Revised UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 18:00 UAE.
Technical analysis
Gold (GC)
Bearish 4,302.8 +0.11% liveGold is below its 20-day average at 4407.4 and 50-day average at 4354.5, with a declining recent range and a 20-day change of -7.4%.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
Gold closed at 4318.9, up 0.49% on the day but still down 2.4% over five days and 7.4% over 20 days. The close is above the pivot at 4304.8, which keeps that level important for near-term balance, but price remains below the 50-day average at 4354.5 and the 20-day average at 4407.4.
The 14-day RSI, a momentum measure, is 42.6, indicating softer momentum without reaching an oversold reading. The nearest upside reference is pivot resistance at 4331.2, followed by 4364.5. A break below the pivot would put 4271.5 and the 20-day low at 4273.3 in focus, while the 14-day ATR of 92.1 signals a relatively wide normal daily range.
Silver (SI)
Bearish 64.07 +0.97% liveSilver is below its 20-day average at 65.28 but above its 50-day average at 63.63, with a negative recent range despite a daily rebound.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
Silver closed at 64.36, gaining 1.42% on the day, although it remains down 3.3% over five days and 7.3% over 20 days. Price is above the pivot at 63.36 and the 50-day average at 63.63, but it remains below the 20-day average at 65.28 and the 20-day high at 71.16.
The 14-day RSI is 47.76, showing broadly balanced momentum after the recent decline. The daily high at 64.53 is the first nearby upside reference, followed by the 20-day exponential average at 65.07. On the downside, pivot resistance at 63.73 becomes a nearby reference, followed by the pivot at 63.36; the 14-day ATR of 1.40 suggests meaningful day-to-day movement.
Copper (HG)
Bullish 6.756 +0.56% liveCopper is above its 20-day average at 6.587 and 50-day average at 6.537, with rising five-day and 20-day changes and price near its recent high.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
Copper closed at 6.750, up 0.47% on the day, 2.04% over five days and 2.47% over 20 days. Price is comfortably above the 20-day average at 6.587 and the 50-day average at 6.537, while the last 10 closes show a generally rising sequence.
The 14-day RSI is 58.844, which reflects positive momentum without an extreme reading. Copper is above the pivot at 6.712 and nearby pivot resistance levels at 6.725 and 6.731. The recent high at 6.780 and the 20-day high at 6.830 are the main overhead references, while the 14-day ATR of 0.126 provides context for normal price fluctuations.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 25 Sep, 03:55 UAE | USD | President Trump Speaks | Medium | - | - |
| Fri 25 Sep, 13:15 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Fri 25 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | Low | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Fri 25 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Durable Goods Orders m/m | Low | -0.3% | 1.1% |
| Fri 25 Sep, 17:20 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Schmid Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Fri 25 Sep, 18:00 UAE | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | Medium | 47.4 | 47.8 |
| Fri 25 Sep, 18:00 UAE | USD | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | Medium | - | 4.6% |
| Fri 25 Sep, 22:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | Low | - | - |
US events are the main scheduled risk for COMEX metals during the UAE afternoon and evening. FOMC Member Williams speaks at 13:15 UAE, Core Durable Goods Orders and Durable Goods Orders are released at 16:30 UAE, and FOMC Member Schmid speaks at 17:20 UAE. Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and Revised UoM Inflation Expectations arrive at 18:00 UAE, followed by FOMC Member Hammack at 22:00 UAE.
Speeches can affect metals through changes in expectations for US monetary policy, interest rates and the dollar. Economic releases can also produce short-term moves if they alter views on economic strength or inflation. The medium-impact sentiment and inflation-expectations releases, particularly at 18:00 UAE, may deserve closer attention than the low-impact entries.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based approach would treat the three markets differently: Gold and Silver are below their 20-day averages, while Copper remains above both its 20-day and 50-day averages. Signals should be checked against the relevant pivot and moving averages rather than relying on a single daily move.
ATR, or Average True Range, measures typical daily movement. Gold’s ATR is 92.1, Silver’s is 1.40 and Copper’s is 0.126; a volatility-aware model may require wider invalidation bands in Gold and Silver and correspondingly smaller position sizing when risk limits are fixed. A rules-based process can also reduce exposure or pause new signals around the 16:30, 18:00 and 22:00 UAE events, then reassess after volatility settles.
