COMEX Metals Analysis: Gold and silver stay under pressure as copper extends its rebound
Gold and Silver (SI) remain below their 20-day averages, keeping their short-term structures cautious, while Copper (HG) is above both its 20-day and 50-day averages. Gold is trading close to its 20-day low, and Silver is near the lower part of its recent range. Copper is holding close to its 20-day high after a stronger five-day and 20-day advance. US employment data, Federal Reserve speakers and Friday's consumer sentiment release are the main scheduled event risks.
What to watch today
- Gold: pivot 4345.5; support 4283.6 and 4248.7; resistance 4380.4.
- Silver: pivot 64.99; support 63.77 and 63.16; resistance 65.61.
- Copper: support 6.700 and 6.641; resistance 6.797 and 6.830.
- Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE: Unemployment Claims and several Federal Reserve speakers.
- Fri 25 Sep, 18:00 UAE: Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.
Technical analysis
Gold (GC)
Bearish 4,318.7 +0.01% liveGold is below its SMA20 at 4425.9 and SMA50 at 4348.5, with price near the 20-day low of 4273.3 after a declining recent range.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
Gold closed at 4323.6, below the pivot at 4345.5, the SMA20 at 4425.9 and the SMA50 at 4348.5. The 20-day change is -7.09%, while the 20-day range runs from 4273.3 to 4697.7. This keeps the broader short-term structure cautious despite the 0.12% daily gain.
The RSI, a momentum measure ranging from 0 to 100, is 42.3, showing limited upside momentum without an oversold reading. ATR, which measures typical daily movement, is 96.7, so price can move substantially around nearby levels. A hold above the pivot could put 4380.4 into focus, while 4283.6 and 4248.7 are the next lower levels to monitor.
Silver (SI)
Bearish 64.58 +0.30% liveSilver is below its SMA20 at 65.59 but above its SMA50 at 63.48, with price positioned near the lower half of its 20-day range.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
Silver closed at 64.53, below the pivot at 64.99 and the SMA20 at 65.59, but above the SMA50 at 63.48. Its five-day change is -1.44% and its 20-day change is -5.10%, while the recent range extends from 63.02 to 71.16. This reflects short-term weakness within a still-important longer moving-average area.
The RSI is 47.82, close to neutral and not signalling an extreme condition. ATR is 1.39, giving a reference for the metal's typical daily movement. A move above 64.99 would place 65.61 near resistance, while 63.77 and 63.16 are the next downside levels to watch.
Copper (HG)
Bullish 6.756 +1.17% liveCopper is above its SMA20 at 6.581 and SMA50 at 6.529, with price close to the 20-day and 60-day high at 6.83.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
Copper closed at 6.767, above the pivot at 6.700, the SMA20 at 6.581 and the SMA50 at 6.529. It has gained 2.75% over five days and 2.62% over 20 days, while the 20-day and 60-day highs are both 6.830. The sequence of recent closes shows recovery from the 6.33 area toward the upper part of the recent range.
The RSI is 59.419, indicating positive momentum without an extreme reading. ATR is 0.129, so the nearby resistance band at 6.797 to 6.830 remains important relative to typical daily movement. The pivot at 6.700 is the first lower reference, followed by 6.641.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 24 Sep, 12:10 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Unemployment Claims | Medium | 201K | 196K |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Current Account | Low | -258B | -227B |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Barkin Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:50 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 18:00 UAE | USD | New Home Sales | Low | 615K | 607K |
| Thu 24 Sep, 18:10 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Paulson Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 18:30 UAE | USD | Natural Gas Storage | Low | 50B | 44B |
| Fri 25 Sep, 13:15 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Fri 25 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | Low | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Fri 25 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Durable Goods Orders m/m | Low | -0.3% | 1.1% |
| Fri 25 Sep, 17:20 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Schmid Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Fri 25 Sep, 18:00 UAE | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | Medium | 47.4 | 47.8 |
| Fri 25 Sep, 18:00 UAE | USD | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | Medium | - | 4.6% |
| Fri 25 Sep, 22:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | Low | - | - |
The most relevant scheduled event for the metals in the next 48 hours is Unemployment Claims at Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE, marked medium impact. Gold, Silver and Copper can all respond to changes in the US dollar and interest-rate expectations around employment data.
Several Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled: Williams at 12:10 UAE and 13:15 UAE, Barkin at 16:30 UAE, Hammack at 16:50 UAE and 22:00 UAE, and Paulson at 18:10 UAE on Thursday; Williams at 13:15 UAE and Schmid at 17:20 UAE on Friday. Their remarks may add volatility if they alter expectations about monetary policy.
Friday's other medium-impact releases are Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment and Revised UoM Inflation Expectations at 18:00 UAE. Core Durable Goods Orders and Durable Goods Orders at 16:30 UAE are marked low impact. The scheduled data and speeches can produce faster moves around the relevant release times, particularly when price is close to the pivot or a recent range boundary.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based approach can treat Gold's ATR of 96.7, Silver's ATR of 1.39 and Copper's ATR of 0.129 as volatility references rather than fixed forecasts. Wider ATR-based stop distances generally need smaller position sizing so that a normal daily move does not create disproportionate account risk.
The framework can require confirmation around the stated pivots and moving averages instead of reacting to a single intraday move. It can also reduce exposure or avoid opening new positions immediately around the medium-impact releases at 16:30 UAE on Thursday and 18:00 UAE on Friday, while accounting for the several Federal Reserve speaking times.
Session timing matters because liquidity and price movement can change around the US data window. Any rules-based review should reassess volatility after the release, avoid assuming that a breakout will continue, and keep risk limits consistent across the three metals.
