COMEX Metals Analysis: Gold remains under pressure while silver and copper extend gains
Gold is trading close to its pivot at 4372.7, below its 20-day average but above its 50-day average, keeping the near-term picture mixed. Silver is holding above its 20-day and 50-day averages after a strong five-day advance. Copper remains the strongest instrument, with price above both moving averages and near its 20-day high. US economic releases and Federal Reserve speakers may influence volatility during the next 48 hours.
What to watch today
- Gold pivot at 4372.7; support at 4331.3 and resistance at 4417.8.
- Silver support at 66.10 and 65.54; monitor the last high at 68.06.
- Copper resistance at 6.855 and 6.912; support at 6.782.
- US Flash PMI releases at 17:45 UAE on Wednesday 23 September.
- US Unemployment Claims at 16:30 UAE on Thursday 24 September.
Technical analysis
Gold (GC)
Neutral 4,380.1 +0.08% liveGold is below its SMA20 at 4445.1 and EMA20 at 4416.1 but above its SMA50 at 4344.1, while remaining near the lower half of its 20-day range.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
Gold closed at 4373.4, almost directly on the pivot at 4372.7. The price remains below the SMA20, a 20-day average, at 4445.1 and the EMA20 at 4416.1, which keeps short-term momentum under pressure.
At the same time, gold is above the SMA50 at 4344.1. The RSI, which measures recent momentum on a scale from 0 to 100, is 46.1, indicating neither strong buying nor strong selling pressure. A hold above the pivot could keep the market balanced, while a move below it would place greater focus on 4331.3 and then 4286.2.
Recovery conditions would improve if price reclaims 4417.8, with the SMA20 at 4445.1 acting as a higher resistance area. Gold's ATR14, an average measure of daily movement, is 100.6, so intraday swings can be wide relative to the nearby technical levels.
Silver (SI)
Bullish 67.15 +1.85% liveSilver is above its SMA20 at 66.03, EMA20 at 65.52 and SMA50 at 63.25, with price advancing toward the upper part of its 20-day range.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
Silver closed at 67.00, up 1.79% on the day and 5.96% over five days. Price is above the pivot at 66.10, the SMA20 at 66.03 and the SMA50 at 63.25, giving the current structure a constructive bias.
The RSI is 55.67, showing positive but not extreme momentum. The nearest recovery test is the last high at 68.06; a sustained move beyond that level could bring the 20-day and 60-day high at 71.16 into view. The pivot R2 at 66.95 is also a nearby reference within the current range.
Silver's ATR14 is 1.62, indicating meaningful daily volatility. If price slips back below 66.10, the pivot S1 at 65.54 and the EMA20 at 65.52 become important levels for assessing whether the advance is losing momentum.
Copper (HG)
Bullish 6.826 +0.98% liveCopper is well above its SMA20 at 6.580 and SMA50 at 6.522, with ten consecutive listed closes rising toward the 20-day high at 6.912.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
Copper closed at 6.824, up 0.95% on the day, 6.10% over five days and 1.70% over 20 days. Price is above the pivot at 6.782, the SMA20 at 6.580 and the SMA50 at 6.522. The last ten closes show a steady progression from 6.467 to 6.824.
The RSI is 62.788, reflecting firm momentum without reaching the commonly watched 70 area. Copper is approaching the pivot R2 at 6.855 and the 20-day and 60-day high at 6.912. The latest high also reached 6.912, making that level a clear test for continuation.
With an ATR14 of 0.130, normal daily movement remains material at current prices. A pullback toward the pivot at 6.782 or pivot S1 at 6.734 would help assess whether the recent advance is consolidating or losing structure.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 23 Sep, 00:30 UAE | USD | API Weekly Statistical Bulletin | Low | - | - |
| Wed 23 Sep, 17:45 UAE | USD | Flash Manufacturing PMI | Low | 53.6 | 53.2 |
| Wed 23 Sep, 17:45 UAE | USD | Flash Services PMI | Low | 55.8 | 56.8 |
| Wed 23 Sep, 18:05 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Barr Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Wed 23 Sep, 18:30 UAE | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | Low | -0.7M | -0.6M |
| Wed 23 Sep, 20:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 12:10 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Unemployment Claims | Medium | 201K | 196K |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Current Account | Low | -258B | -227B |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Barkin Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:50 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 18:00 UAE | USD | New Home Sales | Low | 615K | 607K |
| Thu 24 Sep, 18:10 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Paulson Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 18:30 UAE | USD | Natural Gas Storage | Low | 50B | 44B |
The most relevant scheduled release is Unemployment Claims at 16:30 UAE on Thursday 24 September, classified as medium impact. A result that differs materially from the 201K forecast can produce short-term movement in US-dollar-sensitive metals and may increase intraday volatility.
The Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI are scheduled for 17:45 UAE on Wednesday 23 September. Their forecasts are 53.6 and 55.8 respectively. PMI releases can affect metals through changes in expectations for economic activity, while the market may react most noticeably when the figures differ from forecasts.
Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled at 18:05 and 20:00 UAE on Wednesday, followed by further remarks at 12:10, 16:30, 16:50 and 18:10 UAE on Thursday. Speeches can cause brief volatility when comments alter expectations about monetary policy. Lower-impact releases include Crude Oil Inventories at 18:30 UAE Wednesday, Current Account at 16:30 UAE Thursday, New Home Sales at 18:00 UAE Thursday and Natural Gas Storage at 18:30 UAE Thursday.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based approach would treat gold as mixed because price is below its SMA20 but above its SMA50, while silver and copper retain stronger moving-average structures. Signals should be evaluated only after a level is tested and held or rejected, rather than from a single intraday move.
ATR measures typical price movement and should guide risk sizing and protective-distance calculations. Gold's ATR14 is 100.6, silver's is 1.62 and copper's is 0.130; tighter protective distances can be more vulnerable to ordinary market noise when volatility is elevated. Position size can therefore be scaled to keep risk consistent across instruments.
Because several US releases and Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled, an algorithm may reduce exposure or avoid opening new positions shortly before and after the higher-impact 16:30 UAE unemployment release and the 17:45 UAE PMI releases. Session filters can also separate the initial release reaction from later price action before a signal is reassessed.
