Forex Market Analysis: Dollar pairs diverge as CPI risk meets mixed technical signals

EUR/USD closed at 1.1213 after rising 0.48% on the day, but it remains 2.81% lower over 20 days. The price is below the 20-day simple moving average, or SMA20, at 1.1324 and the 50-day average at 1.1490. This keeps the wider technical bias weak even though the 14-day relative strength index, or RSI, is 31.1, a level that shows selling pressure has been persistent and the pair is approaching oversold territory.

The pair is above the pivot at 1.1174, a reference level calculated from the prior session, and is also above pivot resistance at 1.1192. A sustained move above 1.1224 could bring the SMA20 at 1.1324 into focus. If the pair loses 1.1174, the 1.1155 20-day low and pivot support at 1.1141 become important downside reference levels.

GBP/USD rose 0.49% to 1.3274 and is almost unchanged over five days, suggesting short-term stabilisation after a weaker 20-day period. The close is marginally above the SMA20 at 1.3269 but remains below the SMA50 at 1.3432. RSI is 45.7, which is broadly neutral and does not by itself show an extended condition.

The pair is above the pivot at 1.3223 and has moved slightly above pivot resistance at 1.3272. Holding above 1.3269 would support a test of the 20-day high at 1.3407, although the SMA50 at 1.3432 remains a higher resistance reference. A return below 1.3241 would weaken the short-term structure and bring the pivot at 1.3223 into view.

USD/JPY eased 0.20% to 158.21 but remains 1.89% higher over 20 days. The price is above the SMA20 at 157.69, the SMA50 at 157.71 and the 20-day pivot at 158.29 by a narrow margin relative to the pair’s 0.94 ATR14. ATR, or average true range, measures typical daily movement, so this relatively large range measure suggests that breaks around nearby levels may be accompanied by wider fluctuations.

A move back above the pivot at 158.29 would keep the 158.74 and 158.96 pivot resistance levels in focus, followed by the 20-day high at 159.00. If the pair remains below 158.29, support at 158.07 and 157.62 becomes relevant. RSI is 54.6, indicating moderate upward momentum without an extreme reading.

USD/INR is quoted at 95.28 after the latest session close at 95.78, with a one-day decline of 1.03%. The pair is below the SMA20 at 96.12, the EMA20 at 96.10 and the SMA50 at 95.57. The move places price close to the 20-day low at 94.87, while RSI at 47.0 is neutral rather than oversold.

The pivot is at 96.33, with pivot support at 95.88 and 94.98. Because the current price is below 95.88, the 94.98 level and the 94.87 20-day low are the immediate downside references. A recovery above 95.88 would be needed to stabilise the short-term picture, with 96.12 and the pivot at 96.33 acting as higher resistance references.