Forex Market Analysis: Dollar pairs diverge as EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain under pressure
EUR/USD remains under pressure after a 3.47% decline over 20 days, with its RSI at 16.25 indicating deeply weak momentum. GBP/USD is also below its 20-day and 50-day averages, although its RSI is less stretched at 34.84. USD/JPY and USD/INR remain above their key moving averages, with both showing firmer medium-term structures. Traders should monitor the high-impact FOMC Meeting Minutes and BOJ Governor Ueda’s remarks for possible volatility.
What to watch today
- EUR/USD: 1.1225 pivot, 1.1192 support and 1.1287 resistance.
- GBP/USD: 1.3208 support and 1.3261 resistance around the 1.3227 pivot.
- USD/JPY: 158.20 resistance and 157.36 support; BOJ Governor Ueda at 10:35 UAE.
- USD/INR: 96.36 resistance and 96.21 pivot support.
- FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 07 October at 22:00 UAE.
Technical analysis
EUR/USD
Bearish 1.1210 -0.40% liveEUR/USD is in a declining short- and medium-term trend, trading below its SMA20 at 1.1440 and SMA50 at 1.1525 and close to its 20-day low at 1.1162.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
EUR/USD remains technically weak. The pair closed at 1.1225, below its 20-day average of 1.1440, 50-day average of 1.1525 and 20-day exponential average of 1.1404. The last 20 sessions show a 3.47% decline, while the close is near the 20-day and 60-day low at 1.1162.
The RSI, a momentum indicator, is 16.25, which reflects very weak momentum and leaves room for short-term stabilization if selling pressure eases. The daily pivot is 1.1225; a move below it would keep 1.1192 and 1.1162 in focus. On the upside, 1.1287 and 1.1320 are the nearest pivot resistances.
GBP/USD
Bearish 1.3209 -0.26% liveGBP/USD remains in a weak short- and medium-term trend below its SMA20 at 1.3352 and SMA50 at 1.3453, with price close to its 20-day low at 1.3182.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
GBP/USD is holding below its main moving averages. The pair closed at 1.3222, below the SMA20 at 1.3352, SMA50 at 1.3453 and EMA20 at 1.3326. Its 20-day performance is down 2.40%, while the 20-day and 60-day low stands at 1.3182.
The RSI is 34.84, showing weak momentum but less extreme conditions than EUR/USD. The pivot is 1.3227, with 1.3208 and 1.3182 providing nearby downside levels. A recovery would first need to challenge 1.3261 and then 1.3280, the closest pivot resistances.
USD/JPY
Bullish 158.10 +0.23% liveUSD/JPY has a firmer medium-term structure, trading above its SMA20 at 156.46 and slightly above its SMA50 at 157.92, while remaining below the 20-day high at 159.00.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
USD/JPY is holding a constructive technical position. The pair closed at 157.98, above the SMA20 at 156.46, the EMA20 at 157.34 and marginally above the SMA50 at 157.92. It has gained 2.68% over 20 days, although it remains below the 20-day high at 159.00.
The RSI is 54.07, indicating broadly balanced momentum rather than an extreme reading. The pivot is 157.82, followed below by support at 157.36. On the upside, 158.20 and 159.00 are the nearest resistance levels. The 1.23 ATR, or average true range, signals that daily price movement can remain relatively wide.
USD/INR
Bullish 96.43 +0.10% liveUSD/INR retains a positive short- and medium-term structure above its SMA20 at 95.82 and SMA50 at 95.47, while trading near its 20-day high at 96.36.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
USD/INR continues to hold a firm technical structure. The pair closed at 96.29, above the SMA20 at 95.82, SMA50 at 95.47 and EMA20 at 95.85. It has risen 1.91% over 20 days and is close to the 20-day high at 96.36, while the 60-day high is 96.90.
The RSI is 58.39, showing moderately positive momentum without an extreme reading. The pivot is 96.21, with 96.07 as the next support level. Resistance is placed at 96.36 and 96.46, while the 0.45 ATR indicates a more contained daily range than USD/JPY.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 06 Oct, 10:35 UAE | JPY | BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks | High | - | - |
| Tue 06 Oct, 16:15 UAE | USD | ADP Weekly Employment Change | Low | - | - |
| Tue 06 Oct, 16:16 UAE | USD | ADP Weekly Employment Change | Low | - | 20.0K |
| Tue 06 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Trade Balance | Low | -100.8B | -88.6B |
| Tue 06 Oct, 18:10 UAE | USD | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism | Low | 44.5 | 45.6 |
| Tue 06 Oct, 18:45 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Tue 06 Oct, 21:15 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Schmid Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Wed 07 Oct, 00:30 UAE | USD | API Weekly Statistical Bulletin | Low | - | - |
| Wed 07 Oct, 18:30 UAE | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | Low | - | 0.9M |
| Wed 07 Oct, 21:01 UAE | USD | 10-y Bond Auction | Low | - | 4.83|2.7 |
| Wed 07 Oct, 22:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes | High | - | - |
| Wed 07 Oct, 23:00 UAE | USD | Consumer Credit m/m | Low | 14.4B | 18.1B |
JPY: BOJ Governor Ueda speaks at 10:35 UAE. Because USD/JPY is near 158.00 and above its key moving averages, remarks affecting expectations for Japanese policy can trigger sharp movement in the pair.
USD data and speakers: ADP Weekly Employment Change is scheduled at 16:15 and 16:16 UAE, followed by Trade Balance at 16:30, RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism at 18:10, and FOMC members Bowman and Schmid speaking at 18:45 and 21:15. These lower-impact releases and comments can still cause short-term dollar fluctuations when they differ from market expectations.
Highest-impact release: FOMC Meeting Minutes are scheduled for Wednesday at 22:00 UAE. Changes in the perceived direction of US monetary policy can affect EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/INR, so volatility may increase around the release. Crude Oil Inventories at 18:30 UAE, the 10-year Bond Auction at 21:01 UAE and Consumer Credit at 23:00 UAE are also on the schedule.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based approach should distinguish trend direction from stretched momentum. EUR/USD has an ATR14 of 0.0064 and RSI of 16.25, while GBP/USD has an ATR14 of 0.0075 and RSI of 34.84; systems may therefore require wider volatility-based stop distances than usual or reduce position size rather than using fixed distances.
USD/JPY has the widest stated ATR at 1.23, so position sizing should account for larger typical daily movement. USD/INR has an ATR14 of 0.45. A systematic model can use these ATR readings to scale exposure, avoid excessive concentration, and reassess conditions when price approaches the stated pivot and range levels.
Rules can also limit new signals immediately around BOJ Governor Ueda’s remarks and the high-impact FOMC Meeting Minutes at 22:00 UAE on Wednesday. Testing signals by session timing and avoiding entries during unusually wide spreads or rapid release-driven moves can help keep execution consistent.
