Forex Market Analysis: Dollar pairs diverge as euro and sterling remain under pressure
EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain below their 20-day and 50-day averages, keeping their broader technical bias bearish despite modest daily rebounds. USD/JPY is above its 20-day average but below its 50-day average, while USD/INR trades above both averages but below its daily pivot. Oversold RSI readings in the euro and sterling leave room for a short-term rebound, but confirmation is still needed. Central-bank speeches and Tuesday’s US consumer confidence and JOLTS releases may increase volatility.
What to watch today
- EUR/USD: 1.1385 pivot, 1.1358 support and 1.1401 resistance.
- GBP/USD: 1.3228 pivot, 1.3193 support and 1.3246 resistance.
- USD/JPY: 158.22 pivot, 157.60 support and 159.43 resistance.
- USD/INR: 96.01 pivot, 95.54 support and 96.32 resistance.
- ECB speeches at 17:30 UAE Monday and 15:00 UAE Tuesday; US confidence and JOLTS at 18:00 UAE Tuesday.
Technical analysis
EUR/USD
Bearish 1.1390 +0.13% liveEUR/USD remains below its 20-day and 50-day averages and near the lower end of its recent range, although the latest close is slightly above the daily pivot.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
EUR/USD closed at 1.1392, below the 20-day average at 1.1535 and the 50-day average at 1.1537. The pair is also below its 20-day exponential average at 1.1503, while the 20-day range extends from 1.1360 to 1.1654. This keeps the wider trend under pressure.
The 14-day RSI, a momentum gauge, is at 28.90, an oversold reading that can allow a counter-trend bounce but does not by itself confirm a reversal. The daily pivot, a reference level for session direction, is at 1.1385. Holding above it would keep the first upside test near 1.1401, followed by 1.1428; a move below it would refocus attention on 1.1358.
GBP/USD
Bearish 1.3244 +0.25% liveGBP/USD is below its 20-day and 50-day averages and close to the lower boundary of its recent range, with only a modest rebound from the latest low.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
GBP/USD closed at 1.3245, well below the 20-day average at 1.3440, the 50-day average at 1.3468 and the 20-day exponential average at 1.3404. The pair is near the lower part of its 20-day range, which runs from 1.3210 to 1.3570. The recent five-day and 20-day changes remain negative.
The 14-day RSI is 30.01, close to the oversold zone and consistent with weak momentum, although it can also precede short-lived rebounds. The daily pivot is at 1.3228, with nearby resistance at 1.3246 and 1.3282. A sustained move below the pivot would bring 1.3193 into view, while the 20-day low remains at 1.3210.
USD/JPY
Neutral 157.75 -0.67% liveUSD/JPY trades above its 20-day average but below its 50-day average, leaving the pair in a mixed trend within a broad recent range.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
USD/JPY closed at 157.75, above the 20-day average at 156.40 and the 20-day exponential average at 157.07, but below the 50-day average at 158.61. The pair remains inside a 20-day range from 152.90 to 160.38. This combination of moving-average signals supports a neutral assessment rather than a clear directional trend.
The 14-day RSI is 52.55, indicating broadly balanced momentum. USD/JPY is below the daily pivot at 158.22; reclaiming that level could place 159.43 in focus. A move below the nearby support at 157.60 would shift attention toward 156.39, which is close to the 20-day average.
USD/INR
Neutral 95.93 -0.24% liveUSD/INR is above its 20-day and 50-day averages but below the daily pivot, showing a mildly firm medium-term structure with limited near-term direction.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
USD/INR closed at 95.80, above the 20-day average at 95.38, the 50-day average at 95.51 and the 20-day exponential average at 95.59. However, the pair remains below its daily pivot at 96.01. Its 20-day range is between 94.23 and 96.17, while the latest daily change was lower.
The 14-day RSI is 53.29, consistent with balanced-to-mildly positive momentum rather than an extreme condition. Holding above 95.54 would preserve the nearby support structure, while a move through the pivot at 96.01 could bring 96.32 into focus. A break below 95.54 would weaken the short-term structure and expose the 20-day low at 94.23.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 28 Sep, 16:15 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Mon 28 Sep, 17:30 UAE | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | Medium | - | - |
| Mon 28 Sep, 21:25 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Cook Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Mon 28 Sep, 21:30 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Barkin Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Tue 29 Sep, 15:00 UAE | EUR | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | Medium | - | - |
| Tue 29 Sep, 17:00 UAE | USD | HPI m/m | Low | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tue 29 Sep, 17:00 UAE | USD | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y | Low | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| Tue 29 Sep, 18:00 UAE | USD | CB Consumer Confidence | Medium | 90.1 | 89.4 |
| Tue 29 Sep, 18:00 UAE | USD | JOLTS Job Openings | Medium | 7.23M | 7.27M |
| Tue 29 Sep, 19:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Tue 29 Sep, 20:40 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Barr Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Tue 29 Sep, 21:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Tue 29 Sep, 21:30 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Musalem Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Tue 29 Sep, 22:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Tue 29 Sep, 23:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | Low | - | - |
For EUR/USD, the most relevant events are ECB President Lagarde’s speeches at 17:30 UAE on Monday and 15:00 UAE on Tuesday. Comments on the euro-area outlook or policy can cause short-term movement in the pair.
USD pairs may react to the scheduled FOMC member remarks, including Bowman at 16:15 UAE, Cook and Barkin at 21:25 and 21:30 UAE on Monday, and several speakers from 19:00 to 23:00 UAE on Tuesday. These are marked low impact, but shifts in policy language can still create temporary volatility.
The main Tuesday US releases are CB Consumer Confidence at 18:00 UAE, forecast at 90.1 versus 89.4 previously, and JOLTS Job Openings at 18:00 UAE, forecast at 7.23M versus 7.27M previously. These medium-impact releases can affect the US dollar and may produce sharper moves around the release time.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based approach would treat EUR/USD and GBP/USD as bearish-trend conditions because both are below their 20-day and 50-day averages, while recognising that their RSI readings near 29 and 30 show stretched downside momentum. USD/JPY and USD/INR require more selective filters because their moving-average and pivot signals are mixed.
The 14-day ATR, which measures typical daily price movement, is 0.0054 for EUR/USD, 0.0071 for GBP/USD, 1.38 for USD/JPY and 0.64 for USD/INR. An algorithm may use these different volatility levels to set proportionate stop distances and reduce position size when the required distance becomes larger.
Rules-based systems commonly avoid opening or adjusting positions immediately around the medium-impact Lagarde speeches and the Tuesday US confidence and JOLTS releases. Session and spread filters, confirmation beyond pivot levels, and a pause after unusually large moves can help limit exposure to event-driven volatility.
