Forex Market Analysis: Dollar pairs diverge as euro and sterling remain under pressure

EUR/USD closed at 1.1478, just above its pivot at 1.1475, after a sequence of weaker closes. The pair remains below the 20-day average at 1.1594, the 50-day average at 1.1539 and the 20-day exponential average at 1.1564. This keeps the broader short-term structure bearish, even though the one-day change was slightly positive.

The RSI, a momentum measure, is 34.77, showing weak momentum and proximity to the commonly watched oversold area below 30 without reaching it. The nearest downside reference is the 20-day low at 1.1456, which also matches pivot support 1. If that area holds, a move back toward the pivot and 1.1495 could develop. The 14-day ATR, a measure of typical daily movement, is 0.0047, so intraday moves may remain material relative to the current price.

GBP/USD closed at 1.3384, above its pivot at 1.3358 but below the pivot resistance at 1.3399. The pair is below its 20-day average at 1.3520, its 50-day average at 1.3484 and its 20-day exponential average at 1.3487. The five-day and 20-day changes remain negative, so the recent one-day recovery has not yet changed the wider short-term trend.

RSI is 36.46, indicating subdued momentum without a reading below 30. The 20-day low at 1.3337 is the nearest major support, while 1.3378 and 1.3399 are the first resistance references. With ATR at 0.0062, a typical daily range is relatively wide; sustained movement above 1.3399 would be needed to improve the immediate technical tone.

USD/JPY closed at 156.93, above its pivot at 156.75 and its 20-day average at 156.77. The last 10 closes show a clear recovery from 153.42 to 156.93, although the pair remains below the 50-day average at 159.05. This creates a constructive short-term profile within a still-mixed broader trend.

RSI is 49.71, close to the midpoint, so momentum is neither strongly overbought nor oversold. The first upside reference is pivot resistance at 157.38, followed by 158.63. If the pivot area fails, 155.50 is the next support. ATR is 1.99, indicating that daily price swings can be sizeable and that a rules-based approach may require wider volatility allowances.

USD/INR closed at 95.87, above its pivot at 95.83 and all three supplied moving averages. The pair has gained over five days and remains close to the upper part of its 20-day range, although it is below the recent high at 96.13. This keeps the short-term bias constructive but leaves the market close to nearby resistance.

RSI is 55.56, showing moderately positive momentum without an overbought reading. A sustained move above 96.00 could bring 96.20 into focus, while a move back below 95.83 would weaken the immediate structure and expose 95.63. ATR is 0.60, so algorithms may treat normal daily fluctuations as meaningful when setting volatility filters.