Crypto Market Analysis: Crypto pulls back from recent highs while longer trends remain positive
Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and BNB each declined on the day, while all four remain above their 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages. Momentum is still moderately positive, with RSI readings between 61.4 and 64, but prices are below their daily pivots. The immediate focus is whether nearby support levels hold after the pullback. USD unemployment data and consumer sentiment figures may add volatility during the next 48 hours.
What to watch today
- Bitcoin: 84388 and 83783 support; 85280 and 85990 resistance.
- Ethereum: 2687 and 2667 support; 2720 and 2748 resistance.
- Solana: 114.14 and 114.18 support; 116.32 and 117.80 resistance.
- BNB: 772.6 and 764.2 support; 780.4 and 789.9 resistance.
- USD events: unemployment claims Thu 24 Sep at 16:30 UAE; revised consumer sentiment Fri 25 Sep at 18:00 UAE.
Technical analysis
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Neutral 84,084 -2.42% liveBitcoin remains in a broader upward trend above its 20-day SMA at 79496 and 50-day SMA at 74525, but has pulled back below the 85990 pivot within its recent range.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
Bitcoin closed at 84030, down 2.49% on the day after reaching 84440. The close is below the pivot at 85990 and also below pivot support at 85280, while the 20-day high at 87364 remains the key recent range ceiling. The 20-day and 50-day averages remain well below price, keeping the broader trend constructive.
The RSI, a momentum measure, is 64, indicating positive momentum without being at an extreme level. The 14-day ATR, which measures typical daily movement, is 2444, so price can remain volatile around nearby levels. Support is clustered at 84388 and the recent low of 83783; a sustained move above 85280 would put 85990 and then 86882 into focus.
Ethereum (ETH/USD)
Neutral 2,686 -2.41% liveEthereum remains above its 20-day SMA at 2536 and 50-day SMA at 2325, but is below the 2748 pivot after retreating from the upper part of its recent range.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
Ethereum closed at 2675, down 2.82% on the day, with the session ranging from 2667 to 2690. Price is below the pivot at 2748 and pivot support at 2720, while the 20-day high at 2805 marks the recent range top. Even after the decline, the close remains above both major moving averages.
RSI is 63, showing moderately strong momentum, while the 14-day ATR is 107. The nearest reference levels are pivot support at 2687 and the recent low at 2667. Holding those areas would keep the broader upward structure intact; a recovery above 2720 would bring 2748 and 2781 back into view.
Solana (SOL/USD)
Neutral 114.99 -2.97% liveSolana is above its 20-day SMA at 105.44 and 50-day SMA at 94.90, but has retreated below the 117.80 pivot after trading near its 20-day high of 119.81.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
Solana closed at 114.76, down 3.16% on the day, after trading between 114.18 and 115.55. The close is below the pivot at 117.80 and pivot support at 116.32, placing price near the lower end of the latest session range. The longer trend remains stronger than the short-term price action because the close is above both the 20-day and 50-day averages.
RSI is 63.53, which reflects positive but moderating momentum. The 14-day ATR is 4.97, a relatively large daily movement compared with the current price. The 114.14 pivot support and 114.18 recent low are immediate downside references, while 116.32 and 117.80 are the first recovery levels.
BNB (BNB/USD)
Neutral 771.7 -2.09% liveBNB remains above its 20-day SMA at 744.2 and 50-day SMA at 687.3, but is below the 789.9 pivot after declining from the recent 806.5 high.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
BNB closed at 770.1, down 2.29% on the day, after reaching 774.6 and touching a low of 764.2. Price is below the pivot at 789.9 and pivot support at 780.4, while the 20-day high at 806.5 remains the wider range ceiling. The close is still above the 20-day and 50-day averages, preserving a constructive longer-term structure.
RSI is 61.4, indicating moderately positive momentum. The 14-day ATR is 22, so short-term price changes can be sizeable. The 772.6 pivot support and 764.2 recent low are the immediate downside references; reclaiming 780.4 would improve the short-term structure and put 789.9 back in focus.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 24 Sep, 12:10 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Unemployment Claims | Medium | 201K | 196K |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Current Account | Low | -258B | -227B |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Barkin Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 16:50 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 18:00 UAE | USD | New Home Sales | Low | 615K | 607K |
| Thu 24 Sep, 18:10 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Paulson Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Thu 24 Sep, 18:30 UAE | USD | Natural Gas Storage | Low | 50B | 44B |
| Fri 25 Sep, 13:15 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Fri 25 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | Low | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Fri 25 Sep, 16:30 UAE | USD | Durable Goods Orders m/m | Low | -0.3% | 1.1% |
| Fri 25 Sep, 17:20 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Schmid Speaks | Low | - | - |
| Fri 25 Sep, 18:00 UAE | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | Medium | 47.4 | 47.8 |
| Fri 25 Sep, 18:00 UAE | USD | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | Medium | - | 4.6% |
| Fri 25 Sep, 22:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | Low | - | - |
The most relevant scheduled releases for crypto are the USD unemployment claims at 16:30 UAE on Thursday and the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations figures at 18:00 UAE on Friday. These medium-impact releases can affect expectations for the US economy and interest rates, which may lead to sharper moves in digital assets.
Several Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled, including Williams at 12:10 UAE on Thursday and 13:15 UAE on Friday, alongside other speakers through Friday evening. Their comments can increase short-term uncertainty, although the listed events carry low impact. Traders may also watch the Thursday 16:30 UAE current account release and the 18:00 UAE new home sales release, both marked low impact.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based approach would recognise that all four instruments remain above their 20-day and 50-day averages, while daily closes are below their pivots. That mixed structure favours confirmation through price levels rather than assuming that the longer trend will immediately resume.
ATR measures typical daily volatility: 2444 for Bitcoin, 107 for Ethereum, 4.97 for Solana and 22 for BNB. An algorithm may use volatility-adjusted stop distance and smaller position sizing when ATR is elevated, rather than applying the same fixed distance to every instrument. It may also reduce exposure or avoid opening positions around the 16:30 UAE Thursday data and 18:00 UAE Friday releases, then reassess after spreads and price movement settle.
Because crypto trades continuously, session timing can be evaluated around the US economic calendar and the periods when liquidity changes. Any rules should be tested against historical conditions and should not be treated as a guarantee of results.
