COMEX Metals Analysis: Gold and silver remain below key averages as copper holds firm
Gold and silver remain below their 20-day and 50-day averages, keeping their short-term technical bias pressured. Copper is holding above both averages and its pivot, showing comparatively stronger momentum. The FOMC Meeting Minutes at 22:00 UAE time are the main scheduled risk for all three metals, with additional attention on US labour updates on Thursday.
What to watch today
- Gold: 4141.1 support, 4176.7 pivot and 4222.8 resistance.
- Silver: 60.93 and 60.70 support; 61.15 and 61.39 resistance.
- Copper: 6.613 and 6.595 support; 6.631 and 6.830 resistance.
- FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday at 22:00 UAE time.
- Waller speaks Thursday at 12:30 UAE time; Unemployment Claims follow at 16:30 UAE time.
Technical analysis
Gold (GC)
Bearish 4,159.0 -0.67% liveGold is below its 20-day average at 4291 and 50-day average at 4372.8, while trading near the lower part of its 20-day range from 4130.7 to 4479.9.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
Gold closed at 4166.6, down 0.49% on the day and 6.59% over 20 days. Price is below the pivot at 4176.7, the 20-day average at 4291, and the 50-day average at 4372.8. The 14-day RSI, a momentum measure, is 36.1, showing weak momentum without reaching the usual oversold threshold.
The first downside area is the pivot support at 4141.1, followed by 4095. A move back above 4176.7 would put 4222.8 on watch, although the broader structure remains below both moving averages. The 14-day ATR, a measure of typical daily movement, is 77.4, indicating that daily swings can be wide.
Silver (SI)
Bearish 61.00 -0.28% liveSilver is below its 20-day average at 63.08 and 50-day average at 64.07, with price positioned in the lower half of its 20-day range from 59.98 to 66.94.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
Silver closed at 61.06, down 0.17% on the day but up 1.61% over five days. It remains below the pivot at 61.15, the 20-day average at 63.08, and the 50-day average at 64.07. The 14-day RSI is 41.7, reflecting subdued momentum rather than an extreme reading.
Initial support is at 60.93, followed by 60.70. A recovery above 61.15 would place 61.39 in focus, while the 20-day low at 59.98 remains an important broader range reference. The 14-day ATR is 1.21, so intraday movement can be meaningful relative to the current price.
Copper (HG)
Bullish 6.628 +0.50% liveCopper is above its 20-day average at 6.563 and 50-day average at 6.570, with price in the upper half of its 20-day range from 6.281 to 6.830.
Daily candles, last 90 sessions. Green dashed = support, red dashed = resistance.
Copper closed at 6.624, gaining 0.45% on the day and 1.00% over five days. Price is above the pivot at 6.595, the 20-day average at 6.563, and the 50-day average at 6.570. The 14-day RSI is 53.344, consistent with modestly positive momentum rather than an extreme condition.
The nearest levels to monitor are 6.613 and 6.595 on the downside, while 6.631 is the next pivot resistance. A sustained move through that level would bring the 20-day and 60-day high at 6.830 into view. Copper's 14-day ATR is 0.079, providing a reference for its normal daily range.
Market events (next 48 hours)
| Time (UAE) | Currency | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 07 Oct, 00:30 UAE | USD | API Weekly Statistical Bulletin | Low | - | - |
| Wed 07 Oct, 18:30 UAE | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | Low | 1.9M | 0.9M |
| Wed 07 Oct, 21:01 UAE | USD | 10-y Bond Auction | Low | - | 4.83|2.7 |
| Wed 07 Oct, 22:00 UAE | USD | FOMC Meeting Minutes | High | - | - |
| Wed 07 Oct, 23:00 UAE | USD | Consumer Credit m/m | Low | 14.5B | 18.1B |
| Thu 08 Oct, 12:30 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | Medium | - | - |
| Thu 08 Oct, 16:30 UAE | USD | Unemployment Claims | Medium | 200K | 197K |
| Thu 08 Oct, 18:00 UAE | USD | Final Wholesale Inventories m/m | Low | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Thu 08 Oct, 18:30 UAE | USD | Natural Gas Storage | Low | 79B | 64B |
| Thu 08 Oct, 21:01 UAE | USD | 30-y Bond Auction | Low | - | 5.31|2.6 |
| Thu 08 Oct, 21:40 UAE | USD | FOMC Member Musalem Speaks | Low | - | - |
The main event is the FOMC Meeting Minutes at 22:00 UAE time on Wednesday. Because the minutes can affect expectations around US monetary policy and interest rates, gold, silver, and copper may experience wider or faster price movements around the release.
FOMC Member Waller speaks at 12:30 UAE time on Thursday, followed by Unemployment Claims at 16:30 UAE time. These events may also influence the US dollar and rate expectations, creating additional volatility in the metals complex.
The 10-year Bond Auction at 21:01 UAE time on Wednesday and 30-year Bond Auction at 21:01 UAE time on Thursday are lower-impact scheduled events, but may still matter for interest-rate sensitivity. Crude Oil Inventories at 18:30 UAE time and Consumer Credit at 23:00 UAE time on Wednesday are also lower-impact releases.
Algo insight: how a rules-based system treats today
A rules-based algorithm would classify Gold and Silver as weaker while they remain below their 20-day and 50-day averages. Copper has the stronger technical structure because it is above both averages and its pivot. Position sizing can be adjusted to the instrument's ATR: 77.4 for Gold, 1.21 for Silver, and 0.079 for Copper, with wider normal movement calling for more conservative exposure rather than automatically wider risk.
Because the FOMC Meeting Minutes are a high-impact release at 22:00 UAE time, an algorithm may avoid opening new positions immediately before the event, pause signals during the initial reaction, and wait for volatility to settle. The same review can be applied around Waller's speech and Unemployment Claims on Thursday, while session timing and liquidity filters can help reduce exposure during unusually fast moves.
